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Belarus U20 stood no chance yesterday. By the end of first half, they were down to A team 12-45. In the second half, A team started holding back and won by 42. U20 team coach said they got together only 4 days before the tournament for the first time this year and didn't have time to get to know each other better. The UK played Belarus A team on Monday but that was closed for public. The UK had a 3-point lead by half time but they lost 62-64 in the end. That was the first test game for them. Coach Buceta wanted to give all players some minutes so the best ones didn't play for over 15-18 minutes.
The UK have 6 players from Eurobasket of two years ago and 6 from last year's EC qualifiers. Key scorer Leedham and WNBA player Fagbenle are out but key players are there. They played for French, Spanish or British teams or they're at American universities. They beat Argentina with a lot of struggle yesterday but key players got more time on the floor this time. I think Belarus won't do much more than yesterday. The UK are close to Belarus A quality-wise. The Brits mostly play with the top team in the first half and later on give everyone a chance. They will play the key game for spot 1 tomorrow and I think the difference in quality will get obvious here in the first half. Apart from the 1st half handicap, you can play total handicap as well. Details

Oostende are after their 6th consecutive title. They are on a 16-game winning run in all competitions. They lost to Mons in the first round home in Belgian league and went on to record 17 straight wins since. They finished regular season with 8 wins more than runner-ups Antwerp and that only shows how dominant they are in Belgium. Since they were set to finish in spot 1 with 10 rounds still left in the championship, their motivation and focus wasn't always top level. However, the playoffs are to start today and given coach Gjergja's mindset, I have no doubt they will go full throttle.
Willebroek managed to reach the playoffs for the first time ever. They wanted but couldn't avoid spot 8. They lost to Oostende in the last round by 9 but there is the story about motivation again. Oostende lost earlier in Willebroek but that game came at the worst possible moment for the defending champions - between two semifinal meetings with Chalon in FIBA Europe Cup. Earlier in the season, Oostende won by 11 home, had +20 at half time. In the first game in Willebroek, it was +22 (+22 at HT).
There is no question about the difference in quality here. Oostende have a lot more players to choose from. An extra problem for Willebroek is declining form. They are on a 6-game losing run away. They managed to do well only against weakened Okapi and lost by 8 while they lost by 30 or more against Spirous, Mons and Brussels (double digits by half time). Unlike Oostende, those teams had something to play for in the finish of regular season.
Total handicap is also a very good option but since the next meeting is on Friday and the stats back the first half a bit better, I'm going with that option. Details

Mons say that this is basically their last chance to catch up with Spirou. Mons are in spot 8, the last one that leads into playoffs. They are far ahead of Leuven (3 wins more) but they are two steps away from Spirou. If they lost today, catching up would be difficult. Finishing in post 8 means meeting Oostende, which everyone in Belgium wants to avoid. Mons are among the most defensive oriented teams in the league. Their average in home games is 148 points, they are 9-3 in unders at this margin. Looking at the game with tougher teams, this is how they did: Oostende 130 points, Spirou 134, Brussels 133. They stayed at 140 or under twice with Antwerpen, who are now more offense oriented. Away with Oostede they went to 145 and 148, 134 and 164 with Brussels, 141 with Spirou in the derby match where tensions are always high. They have 8 overs and 4 unders away at tis margin and their average away is 161,6 points. There a lot of teams in that championship that play run and gun so we need to look at the meetings with more defense oriented teams. Away against Mons they got limited to 134, against Oostende in the game that fell apart at 144. The fact they played Brussels away at 174 at the start of the season, at 166 against Antwerp away and recently finished at 129 and Antwerp at 146 in regulation time says it all about the improvements on the defensive end. After the change of coach, they went at 154 with Oostender some ten days ago (24-31 last quarter), last weekend they limited fast-paced Willebroek at 56 (143 total). Mons finished at 131 a week ago against what might be the fastest team in the league Limburg.
Let's add that they played 10 competitive games over the past 3 seasons and went over 148 in only one of them. They finished at 144 or lower 8 times. Details

The first quarterfinal series game between Novosibirsk and UMMC Ekaterinburg. The game is best out of three. Novosibirsk ended the regular part of the Russian championship with a 8-12 score, and that's about their last year's level. The team is similar to what they were last year, two foreigners plus a lot of young Russians aged between 21 and 23. In the last 12 rounds, Novosibirsk got only two wins. UMMC Ekaterinburg have been in top notch form lately. The coach Olaf Lange isn't sparing his best players anymore. He can use five foreigners in the Russian championship, so he mostly spared his best players: Taurasi, Griner and Toliver. He used his best lineup in the last round and beat Nadežda 89-57, and Nadežda are one of the best defensive teams in Euroleague. UMMC mostly played Euroleague with their full lineup, and didn't go under 88 points in the last seven rounds (except Nadežda). Besides that convincing win, they crushed Famila twice in the Euroleague (by 45 and 35 points). UMMC also played Novosibirsk in the last year's Russian championship quarterfinal, and won 99-39 on the road, and 108-48 at home. This season, they won 74-56 (25-38), but Griner, Taurasi and Toliver were out then. Those three didn't play at home either, when they won 84-56 (46-23), and when they were focused on the Euroleague. Even though there's no official confirmation that UMMC will use their best lineup today, considering the coach Lange's practice in the playoff and the fact they've got no other obligations right now (Euroleague Final Four is mid April), I expect them to go full throttle today.
Novosibirsk lost the game against the second to last placed Kazanochka in the last round, and it's not like they didn't need the win because it could've helped them skip MBA Moscow, get the sixth place and avoid UMMC now. They lost 61-99 at home to Nadežda (25-42), and 57-84 (30-45) to Kursk. They lost 51-95 on the road against Kurks (25-48) and 56-73 to Nadežda (23-44). The club published yesterday that they ended their contract with the wing center Williams (because of an injury), one of two foreigners, and the second best scorer of the team with 14.8 points, and the best rebound player with 9.1 rebounds in 32 minutes on the floor per game. She was their best scorer in their last duel against Kazanochka, with 15 points and seven rebounds.
There's a huge difference in quality here, and Novosibirsk are even more weakened now, so I doubt they can resist. I think all the picks here are good, both the total handicap and the first half handicap, and the guest team over. Details

Spirou have not been consistent this season, and they are again going through a bad period that culminated on Saturday with a home defeat to second-to-last Leuven. After that game they agreed with coach Bastianini to mutually terminate his contract, and his assistant, Pascal Angillis, is now their head coach. We can expect a reaction from them today, they are on a five game losing run, they dropped to 7th position, Mons is threatening them, and the 8th placed team will face Oostende in the play-off. They had a bad period at the start of the season as well, when they managed to defeat the best team in Belgium, that is Oostende. Their clashes are always special, it's Belgian Classico, the biggest derby, or as they like to call it, a clash of two Belgiums. Forma often does not play a role here. Spirou won their first head-to-head this season 74-69, lost at Ostende 58-86, so they were under 150 in both games.
There are only a few teams in the Belgian championship who can compare to Oostende defensively, Mons and partially Brussels. Spirou played games at 134 and 141 points against Mons this season, against Brussels at 154 at home, at the start of the season 174 away, and 129 recently. Oostende fared against Mons in the championship as follows: 145, 130 and 148. Oostende are at an average of 147.6 away, 8-3 in favor of the under at today's margin, no one has such a good defense in the championship. They recently played at 135 at Limburg, at 143 against Antwerp, 153 at Okapi, at 150 at Brussels. Spirou are at an average of 158 at home, 6-6 in over and under on today's margin, but they were under against stronger teams at home, I don't expect them neat their average at home games in this game. Details