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The home team is too big a favorite today because some important details haven't been taken into consideration. First of all, the first two rivals the home team beat are not as good as Metzingen, who finished as runner-ups last season. Also, Buyteuder didn't have a proper preparation for this game. Their best scorer Bolk and the only right back missed the last practice sessions but they will both be on the team. But top goal keeper Lenz won't, just like right back Nijboer and left win Zelmer. They changed half of the team in between seasons. The entire back line has changed and we cannot say that the players who joined are better than those who left. They need more time together. Metzingen had some injury struggles at the start of the season as they were without 6 players but even so, they beat Blomberg away 28-27. Three out of those 6 are back on the team. Only three players who have been injured for a while now are still out. Most importantly the key players are the same compared to last season. Metzingen won both games last season (25-21, 36-31) and they have better player quality than their opponents this season. Details

This is a delayed game of the second round. Bietigheim who were 4th last season and who have an international roster, have acquired left winger from Brazil, and pivot from Denmark. Bietighem should explode this eason, they have ambitions for the title and they have been demonstrating that on the field from the first round. Their first victims were SVG Celle whom they defeated 35-22, and over the weekend they recorded two more wins in the EHF Cup against Naisa (34-15, 37-19).
Bietigheim did a great pre-season in which they defeated Randers, Buxtehuder, Leipzig, and Dortmund in early August, without four players that were at the Olympics. In comparison to last season, Dortmund changed three players, they gained a lot with the acquisition of Huber from Thuringer, and they lost a lot with Ingepaq's departure. Dortmund recorded colorful results in the pre-season, defeated Skandenbrog, Blomberg-Lipe, Buxtehuder, then lost two games to Buxtehuder, drew with Lada and Oldenburg (all games played in 2x20 minutes format).
In the first round they drew 25-25 against Goppingen at home, and the reason for that is their problem with the playmakers. Both of their middle-backs are injured and they are improvising with players who are not natural in that position. Another thing is that Dortmund's best scorer, Nadgornaya will miss most of the season due to pregnancy and she is a player who pretty much cannot be replaced. 22-year-old Van Kreik debuted as left-back, she scored 3 goals against Goppingen, and she will definitely have more problems today. Beitigheim are going into this game as big favorites, which should mean a win by at least 5-6 goals. Details

Both teams confirmed things that were expected ahead of the season. Copenhagen built their team before the start of the last season and only built on that with three new players. Only the center defense player Holmsgaard left. They beat Ringkobing in the first round 33-20, scoring from every position and taking a total of 52 shots. They had 12 errors. Their opponents accepted the fast pace and scored only 20 goals. They would have scored more had it not been for brilliant Copenhagen's goal keepers Stangvik (15) and Elm (5). They have a new coach who came from Norway and he demands easy goals from fastbreaks.
Holstebro recorded a defeat home in the first match to Silkeborg (25-28) which is no surprise since Holstebro lost all of their key players and are now a very young team. 8 players joined and the team has a lot of potential, they like to outrun the opponents but inexperience and lack of time they spent together forces them into a lot of mistakes (almost 13, most from the first part). Their results from test games suggest about the intensity of their games (Savehof 27-28, Silkeborg 29-25, Skovde 32-29, Lugi 21-28). Copenhagen's games from preseason (Gran Canaria 38-19, Nykobing 33-29, Viborg 27-32, Ringkobing 35-28). That suggests we'll see a game at around 55 goals today.
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Krasnodar will be hosting both games against the Greek Ionis in the EHF Cup qualifying round. They won 36-24 last night and basically secured passing through. If they had another coach, perhaps he'd be trying to spare some players, but not Yevgeny Trefilov. He still wasn't happy with their performance, citing a big number of mistakes, and holding their bad form against those players who are still tired from the Olympics.
The Greeks can hardly play two games in the same rhythm, the 12 goals down they had last night was still okay, and they can hardly avoid losing by allowing 20 and more goals. Let's also mention that Ionas played two EHF Cup away in the Russian Astrakhan last year. They lost the first duel 42-28, and the other one the day after 39-15. Details

Brazil were expected here, but Sweden are the biggest sensation in the semifinal since they've beaten USA in the quarterfinal, who were the biggest favorite for the gold and defending the London gold. Both teams came to the semifinal after playing 120 minutes and performing the penalty kicks better.
The key question today is whether Sweden can use the tactics they used against USA to get to the final, which the Americans described as cowardice. That was just parking all the players in front of the goal. Pia Sundhage won't be changing that tactic against Brazil either, especially after they've beaten them 1-5 in the group match. Sundhage will put all 10 players behind the ball, leave the possession to Brazil and wait for their chance from the counter attacks. The first match at the Olympics here, against Brazil, it wasn't like that, Brazil scored two goals early, in the 21st and 24th minute, and forced the Swedes to open up and play, so Brazil crushed them. Today, they'll be focused on guarding their own goal from the beginning, but unlike the Americans, where the ball possession was the most important segment without the high game intensity, today, they'll face an offensively aggressive opponent who always pressure a lot and get a big number of chances to score, similar to like it was in the quarterfinal match between Brazil and Australia.
Brazil dominated Australia from the beginning and they were trying to score. They didn't do it in the regular time, but that caused a big number of shots on target, and especially corner hits. Brazil had 9 corner hits till the 75th minute, and 17 after 90 minutes. We can expect something similar today, Sweden will hardly allow a goal early on, Brazil will be pressuring the offense, and that will result in a big number of corners. Only Brazil can deliver the 9.5 margin that's been offered at some bookmakers, and there will be at least 2-3 for the Swedes. Details

Sweden showed how limited their potential is even in the OG qualifying tournament in March. Only three goals total against Switzerland, Norway and Netherlands still got them to Rio, and they scored two goals in the group phase here, with one win (1-0 against South Africa) and one defeat (1-5 against Brazil), and a tie against China 0-0. Their statistics are even worse, they had 10 shots on target, only three against China.
When it comes to their duels against USA, who won the gold in London and are the biggest favorite for gold here in Rio, they played many games. Since 2010, they played ten times, USA won four times, Sweden three, and three were ties. The last three games ended under, it was 1-1 for US and 1-0 for Sweden in 2013 and 2014 in the Algarve Cup in Portugal, and 0-0 in the WC in Canada, in the group phase. Sweden had four shots then, not one of them on target, the Americans had five shots, two on target.
Let's also mention that the conditions aren't that great in the Estadio Nacional Mane Garinncha stadium, since this will be the ninth game in nine days there. That would probably suit the Swedish defensive style better. That could be changed if the US score a goal early, but the Americans don't really allow goals even in situations like those. Not counting the last game of the group phase against Colombia (2-2), when the US already secured the first place of the group, in two matches against France and New Zealand, the opponents weren't even close to scoring a goal. The expected result is 1-0 or 2-0 for USA, and them getting placed to the semis. Details

I expect a game at over 50 goals, for several reasons. Let's start with the stats, all five of their last head-to-heads finished over today's offered margins (28-26, 28-25, 29-26, 27-25, 28-26). Last two games were played this year, and the last one was at a tournament in Norway less than 20 days ago. Next, we have Norway who made some changes in defense, their lineup is slightly shorter now, and they cover the 'lack' of centimeters with mobility and more physical contact, but they are now conceding more goals than was their average last year. Another thing that doesn't necessarily mean a goal more, but so far it has been going that way, and that is offense with 7 players against six, without the goalkeeper. Norway practiced that before the tournament and applied against Brazil. They did score during those attacks, but it mainly brought more easy goals for Brazil. We can expect more similar situations today. We should also add the statements from the Spanish players that they are familiar with the weaknesses of the Norway's defense and that they plan to put constant pressure on their weak spots. Details