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The balance of power is missed here. Sola have a good team, several great players and when they fit that in the collective, lik they did against Larvik, then they can give any team a hard time, except the Vipers. The most important thing for them is to stay grounded mentally. For that they have Herrem and I believe that the win over Larvik will not get them carried away. As far as quality is concerned, they are much better than Gjerpen in all positions and there is nothing to explain there. Besides, Herrem is not at her top level, and when their game-play sets up so that she participates more, and gets enough good passes to the wing, Sola will be even stronger. Gjerpen are weaker, at least based on what they showed so far. They lost by 4 at Molde. at home to Larvik by 20 and at home to Tertnes, who are at Sola's level, also by 9. Their performances have been bad so far, and I don't believe anything changed in the last four days so much that they can hurt Sola away. In my opinion, this is missed by at least two to three goals. Details

Storhamar lost their most important player. Sundmoen is the second best scorer of regular season and a key player both for offense and defense. Without her, the home team are significantly weaker. Enkerud got injured as well and she's important too. Their absence might be irrelevant against some of the weaker teams but they are to face the Vipers who want to win the playoffs, to reach CL and bring down Larvik. Last week they ruined my tip in a silly way after having +6 at half time but those are some things that cannot be predicted. That does not make them any less superior over the rest of the league, apart from Larvik and especially not against a team that lost the key player. We need to try and take advantage of that. The Vipers won both games convincingly this season and Storhamar had Sundmoen in both. GIven that, this two-goal difference is just not enough. For the more courageous among you, the sure win is well paid. Details

Elverum ruined my bet a week ago, with their last offense. They had a shot for a six-goal difference, I saw the ball in the net, but it was on the outside after all. That's no reason not to pick them today. Everything I said then still stands true. It's not even forcing the team that is a much better one, proving it throughout the season and getting over this margin every time this season.
Elverum didn't play their best a week ago, and they know it. The first half was especially bad. They had a bad start, Drammen got swinging, Holm saving, and they were forced to keep on keeping up. Despite the bad game, they still had one-goal difference after the first half. They were messing it up in the second, playing at about 70% in the last 15 minutes or so. They they got to a five-goal difference in a few offenses, and the story was done, without Drammen even turning around. Anyway, they won by five by playing badly.
They're definitely going to be better today because they never played two games badly in a row this season. And this game is the key to pass through. What's especially important today is that story with the red cards against LTH. The Alliance still hasn't made a decision. Supposedly, Elverum could lose Apelgren on the bench for a month, and play without Bliznac, Overby, Poklar and Toft in the future games. In that case, time to get ready will be super important. If Elverum win this, they'll have a few days more to get ready for the possible opponents, unless Kolstad, Fyllingen and Bodo finish the job today. Either way, the best course of action for Elverum to take now is to solve the quarterfinal issue today, and be in peace and ready for the decision by the Alliance.
Statistically, Elverum played 23 league games and went over this margin in 16. They stayed under three times at the beginning of the season, in the first five games, that is, and were struggling against BSK, Haslum and Fyllingen, teams much better than Drammen.
In the regular part of the season, Elverum won the game here by nine goals. Haslum crushed them by 17, so the home floor isn't that important really. Considering everything, I think the three-goal difference is too little for the defending champion against the eight-ranked team of the national championship. Details

BSK and Fyllingen are two teams of similar style, and that's clearly seen in their statistics. Here we're talking about two best offenses of the league. BSK on average record 30.8, Fyllingen 30.1, and when we mention defense, Fyllingen are a bit weaker with 27.1 allowed goals compared to BSK's 26.8. The statistic of the goal sum is: BSK at 57.5, Fyllingent at 57.1. So, it's clear how both teams play. The tempo is fast-paces, especially with BSK, while Fyllingen compensate that by playing with seven players, which brings results against most of the opponents. The first head-to-head was at 56, 29 was by half-time, even though Fyllingen recorded a single goal in the first five minutes. We have to mention that BSK had a black hole in the last 10 minutes, so that influenced the final total goal number, otherwise it would be closer to 60. Today we again have the 55 goals margin, but if BSK and Fyllingen play the way they know how, it's definitely going to be an over. As for the games against similar opponents, the fact is that there isn't many. Maybe we could take Haslum into consideration with whom BSK went to 60 and 61, and Fyllingen 65 and 65, and then there's OIF against whom both teams went well over the margin. Details

It is not that I am insisting on betting against Falk, but what the bookmakers have offered us on their supposed chances is great. Again we got only 2.5 on their opponents and we must use that. This is actually a copy of the predictions I wrote so far. We had 3.5 on Baekkelaget, 2.5 Bodo, 4.5 Elverum and today we against have 2.5 against Fyllingen which is ridiculous, in my opinion. Just to say, this is profitable at least up to 5,5.
Fyllingen are currently 5th, and 7th Kolstad are only one point behind. Play-off and European competitions are important for them, and if they drop to 7th position, they will face difficult opponents in the play-off. Also, they can still win a medal. Third-placed Haslum are only 3 points ahead of them, OIF are 2 points ahead and they will play at LTH today, which they should win. So Fyllingen cannot slip up here. They have won 8 games this season, all 8 over this margin, and they defeated Haslum, OIF, Halden, Kolstad... all teams better than Falk. They won their first head-to-head by 13 and with a poor first half performance. They couldn't have done much against OIF, the defending champions were great, and their goalkeepers were not up for the task. They will have an easier job today, they lost at home only to Elverum and BSK, but that is not relevant. They will not lose this.
Falk defeated Hallvard and that is why we have this margin, but Hallvard are not a serious team, especially since they lost Vildalen. Their offense is weaker without him. I will not diminish Falk's win, but the fact is they used their opponents' bad performance. The second half finished 11-11. As far as their stats are concerned, they lost 12 games this eason, and went over this margin in 10 of them.
These 2.5 are absolutely too low. Coach Gjesdal wants a much better performance today at home, their win is a safe bet, and I am sure it will be convincing. After 13 goals from the first game, this cannot go under 6 or seven goals difference. Details

Glassverket are definitely not at last season's level but they still cannot be compared to Storhamar, especially home.
They still have a good enough team, they played some good CL games, like the one against Buducnost and Thuringer. When it comes to the championship, they've been doing as expected until the slip against Tertnes. They lost only to Larvik and Byasen in the other 10 games. Of course, Storhamar cannot be compared to those teams.
They confirmed quality in the last EHF game when they beat Oppsal easily with substitutes. As for motivation, there is no great there. They are focused on the championship, especially home games. The results might not be that convincing since the coach rests stars when ever it's possible but they do not have problems controlling games. They also beat Kristiansand, who had it easy with Storhamar.

The visitors opened the second part of the season with 3 wins. Realistically, they played three of the weakest teams but it got them in the race for medals and they cannot be underestimated. Storhamar got even better when Sundomen got back. The offense is great but the defense will have problems since GIF's offense is very different than Raellingen, who them struggled with in the first half.
To sum up, Storhamar are dangerous and play well but they are still the team that came from the second league and do not have enough quality to stun the opponents. The odds suggest that this is a close game but it most certainly isn't. GIF are favorites for a reason as the first h2h proved. They won it by 4 goals despite the fact it was season start. GIF still have no defeats home and I'm sure that won't be changed today.
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I expected higher handicap on Kristiansand in this game, these three goal difference is a consequence of their defeats to Glassverket and Larvik. But I will start with Sola.
Sola have definitely improved from last season when they had 12 points after 22 games. Things are looking good, but they are still a team for the bottom half of the league table and they will have to work hard for play-off. They won three games so far, against Gjerpen, Halden and Tertnes, and took a point against Raellingen. They lost to favorites by 10, 11, 5, 6, 9 and by 11 goals in their first head-to-head. At home they lost by 10 to Byasen, by 5 to Storhama and by 9 to Glassverket at home.
Kristiansand talked about the title ahead of the season, but they are far from that, but they could win a medal, and they will fight for silver against Glassverker, Byasen and Storhamar. So far they fulfilled the expectations. Their only slip up was against Stabaek, they lost to Glass, who is close to them in quality, and they provided decent resistance against Larvik in the second half. As far as the games they have won are concerned, they were under this margin only against defensive teams of Byasen and Tertnes. More importantly, they have the tendency to demolish their opponents, they play counterattacks and fast pace, so they don't usually defend a result. As far as their head-to-heads are concerned, last season they were at 13 and 14 goals difference, Sola surprised the the season before that, but the Vipers fought back with +17. Every game the Kristiansand won, they won over this margin.
In favor of the bet is the fact that the away team had a week to prepare for this game, The difference between second placed Glass and fifth placed Storhamar is only three points, so they have to win both points here. Sola had only three days to prepare and rest so that's another downside for them.
The conclusion is that Kristiansand are a better team, Sola also improved, but if they play as they usually do away, then this should be over 5 goal difference. Another good option is halftime handicap, considering live, but with respect to Sola's half against Larvik, the overall handicap is a better option. Details

I have no idea why Falk are so overestimated, and Bodo underestimaetd. This is similar to when Falk played BSK, this just has a better margin.
They improved their game, but are still second league quality, with a few players they depend on. Their score didn't change - they've beaten Hallvard and LTH who are their level, but are still losing to more experienced teams. They only got defeats at home, every time over this margin. The only reason they were evened out in the game against Kolstad was because Kolstad were trying out a new defense that they didn't practice much beforehand. Even then, they were losing.
Bodo are in a completely different mood - they're in a 4-game winning run, and that's not just any kind of a streak. They've beaten the tricky Drammen who want to get the title and to the CL, Haslum, Halden who are dangerous at home, and then the champion Arendal. All those wins ended over this margin. Their win against Arendal was especially impressive, even the Norwegian national team coach thinks so. To make things better, Bodo didn't have their captain Aga in the second half, one of the key players, and Lund who was leading the team from the bench. Even though OIF have one of the best defenses in the league, they still allowed 32 goals. Falk's defense is the worst besides Hallvard's, and physically weaker than Arendal's, so this should be easier. Also, Bodo brought a great back next to Aziz, Bielenberg, who scored nine goals against OIF.
Their defense was never an issue, and the goalie Christensen is one of the best four in the league.
This game is very important for Bodo, too, to get more ahead of Haslum, and catch up the fight for the bronze. So, there's absolutely no way Falk can play an evened out game today, in my opinion. Details