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I expect an efficient game between teams that are in spot 2 and 3 when it comes to goals conceded average. The home averaged 2,97 and the visitors 3,31 goal per game. Only 4 rounds are left in regular season. Gangwon are in the final spot (6) that leads into the race for the title. Pohang are 7 points short of them and need to try and get the win today. Since both teams are expected to be offense-oriented, we should see at least 3 goals here.

Pohang have 10 overs in 14 home games and have scored 2 goals in the other 4. Two unders are in the first two games of the season, both of which they won 2-0 against the worst teams in the league. Another two unders were agaisnst Joennam who are right below them in the table. It was 1-1 in both meetings.

Gangwon are by far the most efficient away team in the league with 3,8 goals on average. They have 13 overs in 15 away games. Both games that were unders finished at 1-1 (against the aforementioned two worst teams). In all 15 games, both teams scored at least one goal each. In their 3 last championship games, we saw 18 goals in total. The results were: 3-2, 3-4, 3-3 (two of those were away games).

In two h2h games of this season we had two overs. Pohang lost 2-1 home (two goals scored in the last few minutes of the game). Gangwon played 2-2 at home. Details

I don't expect a lot of goals in this game. I believe it will be tough and close. Sarajevo have just two wins in 7 games (over Celik and Vitez, two weakest teams in the championship). A total of 6 goals were scored in those game. Those two teams are the only ones to which they managed to score over 1 goal. In the other 5 games, they scored only 3 goals. They have 5 out of 7 unders so far in the season. One over was in the first round to defending champions and top table team Zrinski (1-2) and the other was last round when they beat Vitez 4-0. All the other games were unders and their defense conceded 2 goals to Zrinskil after which they conceded just 4 in the next 6 games. No team scored over 2 against them.

Their opponents SIroki have 4 out of 7 unders so far but 2 out of those were home. They beat Celik 4-0 and Mladost Dooj Kakanj 3-1. Their only over away was against Gosk, where they lost 1-2. Siroki scored their goal in the last minute of the game. Against tougher teams, we have two unders away (Zrinjski 0-1 and Zeljeznicar 0-0). Among the better teams are Sarajevo, regardless of where they are on the table right now. Last season these teams played 4 h2h games, 3 were unders. The only over was Siroki 2-2. That game was played early in the season while Sablic wasn't in charge. Since he took over, Siroki recorded mostly unders. In the other 3 h2h games, we saw the following results: Sarajevo 2-0 (championship), 0-1 (Cup), 1-0 (cup). We have two teams with powerful defense and I expect another tough game. Details

Fredericia have manage to avoid conceding for the first time this season in the previous round. In previous 6 games they conceded at least one goal in each game, and they conceded 2 or more in 4 games. Last season in 10/16 away games they conceded at least 2 goals, in both games at Skive they conceded two. Skive have scored at least two goals in 4 out of 7 games this season, and last year in 9/16 home games they scored at least 2 goals. This season at home, they scored 6 goals in three games (3 Brabrand, 2 against Vejle and one against Esbjerg). Vejle are the leaders and they conceded the least in the league, while Esbjerg are last seasons first division side who conceded only 2 goals in 3 away games. Fredericia do not belong to that level, and their defense is not as good as in those two mentioned teams, but they should get enough chances to score a goal. The home team's numbers suggest that, so we can expect a game with a lot of goals. Details

The under of goals is the best option here.
Zrinjski were one of the biggest over teams in the league last season, they were at an average of 2.46 goals per game and scored the most goals in the league. They have 10/16 overs at home, and their coach announced that they will play offensive football from the start so it does not seem promising for the over.
However, we have to ask ourselves who will score for Zrinjski? Their top striker Bilbija (10 goals last season) is injured. Their top scorer, Mesanovic (11 goals) left the club, so have Petrak, Tomic (both 5 goals), Peko (1 goal). These players scored 32 goals combined last season, which is 60% of their goals last season. Even with all of them in the lineup, Zrinjski scored only one goal in 4 games against Siroki last season, and they were all under. For this game, the players in competition for the offense are: Pezer (2 gls last season), Perisic (2), Mrkaic (no goals last season) which does not seem intimidating. Todorovic will be the biggest threat from the midfield, he scored 7 last season.
The second important thing is Zrinjski's defense, who were the third best defense last season, and have remained practically unchanged. So we have Zrinjski's weaker offense, but equally good defense as last year. Even though these two teams played many efficient games, the fact is that in the last 6 seasons, in championship games, we have 5 unders in Mostar. The only over was 3-2, and in the other five games they scored 2 goals overall. In the last three seasons, their games ended 0-0.
Zrinjski had only 6 unders at home last season, among which are Sarajevo and Zeljeznicar (two top defenses in the league, two out of three teams with the lowest average of goals). Against Sarajevo their played 1-0 and 3-2 at home last season, against Zeljeznicar 0-4 and 0-0. Since Siroki were taken over by Sablic, they have played 16/20 unders, and finished the season with 11 unders in the last 12 games. In the new season they played 5 games, all five under. They will still play the same way, and the statement by coach Sliskovic that defense is their weakest spot can only motivate them further.
The game is played at 20:00, the temperature in Mostar will still be high, and it will not be easy to keep the pace. This seems like another under to me. Details

The best option here is Portugal not scoring. Even though they need to win to get through, they do not have the quality for something like that. England won't let them have counter attacks like Scotland did.

Portugal's results against Top 20 teams in the last two years are: Spain 0-2, 1-3, Norway 0-2, Canada 0-0, Denmark 0-6, 1-3, Russia 0-1, 0-1, Spain 1-4, Denmark 1-3, New Zealand 0-1, Brazil 1-3.

Teams that score against England in the last two years are much better than Portugal: the US, Germany, Belgium, France, Spain, Norway, Italy, Denmark. No team from outside of Top 20 scored against them.

Regardless of possible changes to the English team, Portugal won't get any better in offense and will struggle to score.England won't concede any goals to Portugal like they didn't in the first two games here. Details

Anything but a convincing win for Germany would be a surprise here. That is why my choice is a win for Germany by 3 or more goals.

Head-to-head meetings display dominance Germany have over Russia. They beat them in 17 out of 19 games with an impressive 67-8 goal difference. Many of those games were played a long time ago and aren't relevant but the difference in quality has not changed. Their last 4 meetings played since 2013 prove that (Germany won them 9-0, 4-1, 2-0, 4-0).

Russia have no wins against other Top 10 teams either: Sweden 0-2, the US 1-5, Brazil 0-4, Canada 1-2, France 1-2. We can add some Top 20 teams to this: Belgium -3, 0-3, 0-5, Denmark 1-6, the Netherlands 0-4, Italy 0-3. The only good result is the win over Italy at this EC.

Ever since Jones took over, Germany played just one game with a team outside the Top 20. It was a 2-0 win over Hungary. When it comes to other games, they have 4-2 against the Netherlands, 4-2 against Austria, 3-1 against Brazil and 2-1 against Canada. All those teams are much better than Russia, who should attack in this game but I think Germany will attack them from kick off.

Once Germany get a lead, there will be no stopping them. They need another convincing win to avoid the Netherlands later on. Details

I think the best choice here is goals under. This is the opening game for both teams. They will have easier opponents later on but the key goal here is to get through from the group stage and winning the first game will make that much easier.

Germany conceded no goals in qualifiers for EC, Sweden conceded 3 goals. Sweden mostly record unders as their defense is the best segment of their game. Since the start of 2016 until this EC, they played 17 unders in 28 games. It seems like there were a lot of overs at first glance but 7 out of those 11 were against much weaker opponents. That means only 4 games with powerful opponents finished as overs. Out of games they played in 2017, they have 8 unders in 10 games and not more than 2 goals were scored in any of them.

Germany have 5 unders in 10 games since the new coach took over. Looking at meetings with Top 10 teams (Sweden are one of them), they have 3 unders in 5 games (US 0-1, France 0-0, England 1-0) and two overs (Canada 2-1 and Brazil 3-1).

Head-to-head games don't go in favor of an under because 6 out of the last 7 were overs. The only under was in semis of last year's EC which Germany won 1-0. All these results happened when the team was lead by a different coach and 4 out of 6 were in friendly matches. Germany do not score easily against top defenses like Sweden's, like their results with the new coach prove.

I would be very surprised if these teams scored a lot of goals in the first game. I think under is a great option here but I would also say that the Germany not to score over 1 goals is interesting as well because Sweden conceded over one goal just 3 times in the last 2 years. Details