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Serbia played well below their potential yesterday to record another defeat to Lithuania. Their three-point record was 4-for-28, there were no productive players but they still managed to lose by only 13 (looking at today's margin). The key difference between their opponents from yesterday and their opponents from today is the game style. Turkey lost creativity when Korkmaz left and their offense struggles greatly now. They struggled with Montenegro all day yesterday and won only because there was a difference in rebounding. Serbia are just as good if not better than Turkey in that segment. Turkey will also struggle with Serbia's defense. They had 25 turnovers against Montenegro, whose defense isn't that tough. For comparison's sake, these two teams met two years ago at the European championship and played overtime. Turkey had Kokmaz back then (21 point and 11 rebounds). Serbia didn't have their top players back then either. I said yesterday that Lithuania should not have been favorites against Serbia and I stand by my words. There is no way Serbia will play another game as horrible as that one. I think Serbia are favorites here regardless of the home court advantage Turkey have. I'll take this handicap given all the aforementioned facts. An equally good tip is Turkey team under. Details

I decided for the overall game under for several reasons. Fenerbahce have been rather clear at this margin in Euroleague this season. They went over in only 5 out of 16 games, and against super-fast teams like Milan, Maccabb, Efes, Galatasaray and Zvezda as an exception, whom their thrashed, so the game went over this margin in an exhibition mood. All other games, including the most relevant ones (Real 155 points, CSKA 148 points, Baskonia 153, Panathenaikos 140 and 147 points) were under. When we look at the latest games against Real, we can see that there was a big battle each time. This season they played at 155 and 117, and last season they played at 143 and 153 in regular season, at 144 and 138 in the play-off, and only once at 178 in a game in which Fener demolished Real by halftime. So, they went over this margin once in seven games. The stakes are much higher today because it is the Final Four and all players pointed out the importance of defense and rebound control. It is hard to imagine any thrashing here, everything is pointing to a defensive battle. Real were under this season against defensively powerful teams (Oly 152, Zvezda 152, Fener 155), while they went over against other teams, which caused such a high margin, but is irrelevant for today's game. Another good option is Real's team under because I think Fener are the favorites today and I don't see how Real could solve the problem they have been having for two years now with Fenerbahce's defense. Details

Ahead of the season, Murcia were expected to reach playoffs. Playing two competitions cost them good results in the championship and that is why they are now only fighting for European spots. Katsikaris saw them improve massively in the second part of the season so they have 7 wins in the last 10 games and have allowed over 80 points only once. That is important for this margin. Katsikaris got their defense tougher, Tumba played at 5 and has done a good job controlling the paint, the back court is aggressive and Campazzo isn't such a loose cannon anymore. That started getting them good results and that is why they are on a 5-game winning run in which no opponent hit over 80 points. They are now to face a physically brilliant team but a team that is not at the level of Real or Baskonia in offense. Unicaja slowed down their game in the second half of the season and started playing like their coach Plaza wants them to. They hit over 80 points in only 3 out of the last 10 games. Things are even worse away . In the last 6 games they hit under 80. These two teams met three times this season (two times in EV and once in the championship). Unicaja hit 73 and 88 points, and 75 away. The 88 points from the championship is from January when Murcia were playing horribly. They had 18 turnovers back then, Unicaja controlled them and had a 60-percent shooting for two and 50 percent from the three points range. Those are not realistic numbers, especially away. Murcia controlled the rebounding in all of those matches, which is always important against Plaza's teams. That means there are no points from second chances and that dulls Unicaja's game. If this was played in the first half of the season, the margin might be suited but Murcia are much better now and form wise, they are top of the league. Unicaja always struggle with teams that are aggressive and control rebounding. Murcia proved three times this season that they can do that. I'm sure that will happen again today. Details

I think the bookies are underestimating Unicaja's brilliant form for the second straight round. The odds would not have been over 1,15 on the home team had we had this at the start of the season. This is a way to honor a brilliant and unexpected season Canaries have had. Vidorreta did a great job with the team but I'm sure they have reached their top level. In the last month and a half, they have just one away win (Estudiantes). They lost to PAOK, Murcia, Andorra and played a tie with Asvel. All of those teams are much worse than Unicaja. Looking at the meetings with top teams, they lost to Real by 27, to Valencia by 16. Overall, out of 5 away defeats in the championship, they recorded 4 by double digits. They stunned Granca and Baskonia early in the season but those are teams that rely on shooting and have also underestimated the opponents. Unicaja will do no such thing. They are at top form, they won the Eurocup through impressive performances against Valencia and then trashed Obradorio and Andorra. They covered this handicap against almost all teams of Canarias quality (except when the focus was on EC like with Joventut or Estudiantes). They beat Real, Lokomotiv, Valencia, Barca, Baskonia....) A glance over the table might justify these odds but the fact Unicaja (especially now) are a level better than Canarias who have clearly dropped in form. Unicaja are physically superior and that will get even more obvious if Bogris doesn't play. He is questionable today. It's maybe too early to say this but Canarias are to play CL Final Four in a week home and that is definitely their main concern right now. In case of a bad defeat, they will not be too sad and will definitely not push a player who is not at 100%. Details

Unicaja will play in a celebratory atmosphere today because they recently won Eurocup. The arena will be packed. Eurocup was the turning point of their season because they changed their game style. They started controlling offense, got better in defense and rebounding and are now playing the kind of game their coach Plaza prefers. Their opponents struggle a lot with that and Andorra will be no different because Unicaja have solutions for their top players and game segments. Unicaja had three defeats this season, two of which were very surprising (Estudiantes and Zaragoza) but both happened when Eurocup was their priority. On the other hand, Real, Barca, Baskonia and Gran Canaria all lost here. Two of those teams lost by double digits. If we take a look at mid-table teams, Unicaja beat them easily ((Bilbao +21, Obradoiro +18, Murcia +12, Fuenlabrada +16). They only failed against Joventut and won only by 3. Andorra are doing horribly away. They won just 2 out of 13 games - bottom table Manresa and Gran Canaria in a game that doesn't happen often. Also, there was the overtime with Real when Real had horribly shooting. The other results are as follows: Barcelona -37, Murcia -24, Joventut -15, Canarias -17, Zaragoza -16, Estudiantes -2, Fuenlabrada -12, Valencia -26 i Baskonia -18. When they lose, they lose in style. Their game style is ideal for Unicaja. Once they start recording turnovers, the point difference will only go up. Also, Andorra's key player Albicy was injured last week and might not be at top level. AN equally good tip would be visitors team under because Unicaja have been playing great defense lately. The run and gun Andorra play doesn't Details

This season Maccabi changed a lot of things. They changed coaches, numerous players, they changed the pace. Bagatskis made them into a run-and-gun team, but as he lost the biggest stars (Weems, Miller, Zirbes, Goudelock, and now Seeley), he had to adjust. He said himself that his team is slower now, but they're smarter and have better control of the rebound. As all of the best shots are injured now, players like Landesberg, Simpson, Ohayon and Alexander took over, and they're offensively a different league. When we take a look at Maccabi's home Euroleague games, we can see that they went over this margin in five out of 13 games, but only the game against Fener is important for this game in which they recorded 87 points next to Zirbes, Weems and Seeley. I won't count in Milano and Galatasaray from the start of the season because they're not playing any kind of defense. Baskonia are very fast, and Darussafaka allow over 80 points in away games. In all of those games key players were Goudelock, Weems, Miller, Zirbes or Seeley. Today all of them are out, and Maccabi have to offensively rely on what they have available, but it's nothing close to the original. On the other hand, we have Zalgiris who still have a minimum chance to make it to the playoffs, and for that they have to win today. In the second half of the season Jasikevicius did a great job with lining them up, and they're especially good in away games. They left six out of nine of their opponents in an under on this margin, and they went over against the mighty Real, Galatasaray who recorded 11 three-pointers, and to Brose who are at home a lot faster than in road games. What's the most important today is the matchup. Maccabi are now a team with no speed and transition, and they're focused on position basketball in which they dominated with the rebound in the last few games. That's impossible to do against Zalgiris because no teams in Euroleague don't allow their opponents less rebounds than Zalgiris. Without the rebound Maccabi will be in problems because they're doomed today to players like Ohayon, Mekel and Pnini, and such a team Zalgiris will easily leave under 80 points. Details

This season Canarias are the biggest surprise of the ACB League and the Champions League. They're playing outside of all expectations, and primarily that's thanks to their defense. In Spain they allow only 71 points per games, and in the Champions League they're better with 66 allowed points per game. Their offense doesn't even have to be great, so in one competition they don't even have 80 points on average. These numbers are even more impressive in important games. Against Real it was 139 and 145 points, Gran Canaria 130, Barcelona 131, Baskonia 145, just like Unicaja. The only game against the strong opponents which went for over was at the opening of the season in an away game against Gran Canaria with 170 points. Against today's opponents, Valencia, in the first leg it was 132 points. Valencia aren't as perfect when this numbers are questioned, but they're the second best defense in Spain (75 allowed points per game), and the second best defense of Eurocup (74 allowed points per game). They accepted the fast tempo against the bet teams (Real 156 points, Barca 176, Unicaja 174), but at the time their roster was complete and they could keep the pace for 40 minutes. Today they're without their first two plays and back-up centers and Martinez won't ask them to rush. Besides, they're arriving here after two difficult games against Hapoelo, and surely they don't need something run and gun. Moreover because today Van Rosso and Martinez are the plays, which guarantees organized and well set game. Since they got into injury struggles the games with Hapoelo were at 145 and 151 points, and with Baskonia at 134 points. Crushing of Fuenlabrada and Khimki at home won't be mentioned here because they're teams who rush without thinking, and Valencia pulverized them. They won't do that today against the best defense of the league, and that's why I'm convinced this will remain at the low 70 points on both sides. What favors the bet is the fact that this is the fight for the first place and surely no one will relax and save themselves for the upcoming Euro games. Details

In some other circumstances, getting knocked out of the Eurocup would be a difficult circumstance, but with Gran Canaria there are no slightly bad emotions after the defeat by Hapoelo. They're aware they're playing very well, but the opponents didn't suit them and they were better. Thus today everyone is especially focused and in a very good mood before the match against Obradorio. In other words, that means that they will want to make up to fans and we should expect 40 minutes of intense playing. Against teams similar to Obradorio it looked like this: Joventut +18, Zaragoza +4, Betis +20, Fuenlabrada +51. With an addition that all of those teams are better than Obradorio, and here they also beat Baskonia and Unicaja. Obradorio this season have big probems because they're not adequate for the ACB League, and now their job has been made even more difficult since their best player Allen got injured. With him in the roster in away games they didn't do too well. Against Real -47, Barca -24, Unicaja -18, Canaria -15. They only stood up to Baskonia in the latest away game, but at the time they has Allen. Baskonia played with a limited roster and they were between Euroleague games and withot Shengelia and Larkin who are key for their game. Today they're up for motivated opponents who have to make up for their fans. Granca have 12 equally good players who will keep up the maximum pace for the entire 40 minutes, and I see this at 20 or more points of difference. Details

Bilbao and Fuenlabrada already played 3 head-to-head games this season and all three went over this margin. Those played at Fuenlabrada were at 169 and 167 points, and the one at Bilbao at 180 points. That is no coincidence because these teams play fast basketball and are not really focused on defense. In the last 10 away games, Fuenlabrada limited their opponents to under 86 points only twice. Three times they conceded over 100 points, 4 times over 90 this season in away games. On the other side, they are great offensively, they have a lot of great shooters, and they added Hettesheimer as shooter in position dive. Bilbao are a team that has no options but to play fast because they are comprised of offensively oriented players like Bamforth, Mumbru, Hervelle and centers Buve and Eric who are at a high efficiency percentage in the paint. They are also struggling with defense because they allowed over 82 points in 4 of the last 5 home games, and that is a consequence of their fast pace. Their head-to-heads have shown that these two teams go over this margin easily, even though they have not shot well in those games and made a lot of turnovers. With an average shot efficiency today they won't have any problems to go up to 170 points. Details

Rice's games can be divided into two eras. The one before Renfroe came when he was the only point guard and the one after the American came 10 rounds in. I'm saying that because his minutes and points were very different. He went over this margin in 6-9 games from the first era (stayed under only due to bad shooting against UNICS, Zvezda, and Olympiacos). Those are clearly teams that play brilliant defense. Rice still took his share of shots. Then along came Renfroe so Rice started share his minutes with him. Rice went over the margin only twice in the next 11 games. But that is not relevant because Renfroe adn Oleson were on the team back then. They are gone now and Ribas won't play either. That means that the backcourt is relying on Rice, Navarro (who can play only 20 minutes), Koponen, who is injured and that's it. That means it will all come down to Rice, who needs to take matters into his own hands. He heeds to take some 15-20 shots which is no problem for him. Zalgiris, to make things even better, is not good at defending point guards. Lekavicius, Pangos, Westermann are horrible in defense, the centers are too slow for Rice. That allowed the American to hit 20 points (4-dor-11) in the first game. Oleson played that game for 28 minutes. Rice was always the man for the big games and he knows the team expects him to step it up today. I cannot imagine him getting limited to under 20 points today. Details

Kuban are in a great form, having won eight of the last nine, and 12 of the last 14 matches. Nine of those wins had double-digit difference. All since the coach Obradović took over. They even played most of those games without Rochestie, their best offensive player. He's back now, and the rest of the team are playing fantastic defense, the best in Europe right now. In the last six home games, only CSKA, the best team in Europe, managed to lose by under 10 points difference. They didn't do much better though, having lost by nine. On the other hand, Fuenlabrada won two of the last 12 road games, and those were against weaker teams in Spain. Eight of their 10 losses were by a double-digit difference, and mostly when they had everyone in the roster. They're coming here without Llorca who's injured, and Rey who got fired, and most importantly, without their two best players, Popović and Diagne. The rebounds and the offense will suffer without them, areas where Kuban are extremely strong. There's a huge difference in quality here, and the guest coach is aware that the national championship is their priority now, and as soon as he sees his team doesn't stand a chance, he'll spare the main players. Even if he played the whole game with his starting five, I don't see them faring well here. Details

Next to Real and Andorra, Fuenlabrada and Baskonia play the fastest basketball in Spain. Their games went over 180 and 205 points last year, and nothing changed significantly in their roster or game. What's interesting is that these two teams adjust to the opponent well. So, depending on who they play with, their total points change. Fuenlabrada went over the margin against Unicaja, Khimki, Bilbao twice, Alba and Murcia here - so teams who followed their running. When they hosted Barcelona, Valencia, Manresa or Lietuvos, they stayed under. An exception that confirms the rule could be their duel against Andorra - it stayed at 158 points because both teams had under 50% shots and played an awful third period where only 30 points was scored. Baskonia are almost identical when on the road. They went over this margin against Real, CSKA, Obradoiro, Joventut, Milano, Unics. They stayed under against tougher opponents like Panathinaikos, Zvezda or Žalgiris. The exceptions are the games against Betis who were missing half their team and got beaten 94-60, and Gran Canaria where the combined three-pointer shot was 10/45, something that's rarely seen. The exception on the other side is the 190 points' match against Valencia, only confirming Baskonia's fast game. Today, the only thing we can expect is a fast game. Popović, Hakansson, Rupnik and the rest of the great shooters on one, and Larkin, Prigioni and their guys on the other side - fast game is guaranteed. The stakes aren't that big in this game, so there's no pressure. It's just a league match at noon, and that should improve the game quality. If not at the level of those played last year, then at least for it to end over this margin. Details

We talked about Real and their defense on more occasions. No one pays attention as it's overshadowed by the great offense which produces a lot of points. But the truth is, Real's play best when they record a small number of points. Real are in top form at the moment, having won 11 out of the last 13 games and the defeat to Darussafaka without Llull and Randolph isn't relevant. They went only three times over this margin in that series - home to Panathinaikos 84, and Zalgiris 91 in games which they win and there is also the defeat to Darussfaka. Real will be without Rudy and Maciulis which will give more time to Taylor. Randolph and Thompkins are back which guarantees rebound control for Real. Those two things are extremely important against Zvezda. The Serbian team have all the overs at this margin with teams which are much weaker than them, which allowed them to use rebounding in offense and counter attacking. That was against teams which don't have defense as their primary interest, like Milano or Maccabi. They were limited to 76 to Barca, to 63 against Baskonia, 70 against Darussafaka. The difference in quality is more than obvious here. The fact Real are physically superior is particularly important to me. They will neutralize Zvezda's aggressiveness, solve the problem with offense rebounding and Real cannot allow over 80 in a match like this against the kind of a game Zvezda will play. Details

I would go with this even if they played with best teams. Since Real are without two top scorers (Llull and Randolph), this is something we cannot miss out on. Darussafaka are playing a typical Blatt basketball. No one went over 84 here, not even CSKA. Blatt is great at recognizing opponents' shortcomings and taking advantage of them. Also, he has players who can defend anyone in Europe. Real would struggle with the home team even if they were complete. Like this, things get even more difficult for them. Doncic is bad away, Rudy far from top form, Carroll doesn't get more than 20 minutes, Draper, Maciulis and Taylor aren't much use in offense. The same goes for the paint. Real went covered this margin in 7 out of 10 games this season but they were in trouble with proper defenses. Fener limited them to 77, Granca to 76, Barca to 75 points. They went over 100 points only in the strange game with Barca. Dacka's defense is that level and Real don't have two top scorers now so I don't see them going to 80 points. Details

With Zoric's leave and Cherry's injury, Betis lost two players who, by the words of their coach Tabak, could have recorded 20 points in each match. Before that they also lost shooter Lorbek. What remained of the offense is extremely thin, and it's based on Nachbar's playmaking, while the others are offensively very limited. It's no wonder then that in the last three matches Betis's players were pulverized by a double-digit point difference, and at the time they recorded 62 points against Gran Canaria, 77 in a heavy defeat against the run-and-gun Murcia, and 56 in the last match against Valencia. If we extend that to this margin, Betis was in an over only three times this season, in the first match against Estudiantes where they shot well over 50%, and they had Cherry, Lorbek and Zoric; then against Zaragoza when they had an excellent shooting night and the three aforementioned players, and the last time where they barely came over (79 points) against Obradorio with 52 points in the second half (Cherry and Zoric). Today the line-up is limited, and they're hosting opponents who are far stronger than the three aforementioned teams. The margin was set like this due to run-and-gun basketball Baskonia are used to, but also Sevilla at the start of the season. But, Tabak then realized that with such a roster he has nothing to look for in such a fast game, so he turned to defense who he keeps pointing out. Baskonia are fast, but they have very good defense. which we can see by their latest matches in which they limited Galata to 62 points and Canarias to 73. Before that we have a series of Euroleague matches in which they allowed over 80 points, but that has nothing to do with today's match because we can't compare this Sevilla to Real or CSKA. Against Valencia Tabak has shown that they can stand their ground with slow basketball, and I'm sure they will slow Baskonia down, but they can't stop them, and that's why in a slow match like this I can't see his team record over 70 points against Baskonia. Details