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The odds at Bolelli do not hold water. They're too low because Brown and him are somewhat similar in style - both take a lot of risk, both play aggressively and do not hold back. The Italian played Bucharest last round in slow conditions and is now to play at an altitude of 500m. To be clear, Brown is having massive ups and down, as his qualifying matches here proved, but he was never doing well when being the favorite. That is why he has wins over Karlovic and Wawrinka here. Either way, I think this will finish in games over. The German played three tie-breaks in 4 sets here last year. His game forced third sets against Wawrinka, Stepanek, Baghdatis. He is brilliant at times and then horrible the very next moment. Regardless of that, beating him convincingly is very difficult and he can get a set against pretty much anyone. Bolleli doesn't have what it takes to do well against the opponent's serve and I would not be surprised if this ends in three sets. The German has 8 overs in the last 10 matches at this margin. In Casablanca, he forced Klizan, who went on to win the title, into a third set tie-break. Details

I had Melzer yesterday but I have to say Ledovskikh could have won that match. He played 9 sets in qualifying rounds and lost her service game only 4 times. I though the Austrian would do better against opponents's service but he was successful either. Ledovskikh fired 14 aces and won 85% of first serve points. He lost his service game only once, which is not a coincidence. He clearly uses the higher altitured successfully. He has three matches and three overs this year. Granted, he played against good players in each of those, but the Ukrainian was never very convincing on clay court. He has only three wins last season, with someone like Ciorcila taking a set against him. The Ukrainian mostly records overs (8-2 at this margin in the last 10 matches) and I cannot overlook Russia's player's numbers from qualifying matches. He fired 40 aces and won over 81% of first service points on average in three matches. He deserved a new chance as a lucky loser and I believe Stakhovsky will have problems with him. Details

Dustov earned the Top 100 on indoor challenges by the end of the last and the start of this year. In such conditions he is a serious player, but on a challenger level. After the last such tournament he played only two matches. He lost both of them on the American tour and then he took a break, so he played the last match almost one and a half month ago. Considering that he's here last with the ranking and still made it into the main roster, after numerous cancellations, I doubt he is ready for this match. Stepanek is a comeback. He played his first match in Sarasota and lost. That's why I'm pleased he did the qualifications here. He was struggling at the beginning, but he did the last round as a routine. He has three matches behind him and he's in the rhythm. He's a smart player and he should use the chance today. Dustov has no rhythm, no matches, especially not on clay, and his strongest part of the game is his serve and the first ball after it. That's where the Czech is very dangerous as a top doubles player, and in that segment he should outsmart the Uzbekistani who got his chance thanks to a series of events. Stepanek earned his chance. The difference in quality is huge, everything is on the side of the Czech, so this should cover the handicap. Details

Nadal has been looking for pretexts ahead of every tournament this season. He started sounding like someone who is considered to be the best clay court player ever only last week. Yes, he struggled with Isner, missed to get the service game for the match against Ferrer and then lost a set. His game against Djokovic was progress as well. For the first time this season ahead of coming to Barcelona, Nadal seemed optimistic, which is extremely important for him because his crisis was the result of lack of confidence. That is getting better now, and I'm also happy with what I saw against Almagro. That was the old Nadal there. The match went on for 100 minutes while Almagro won only one more game after 3-3 in the first set. I know this intro was long but it was necessary to explain that Nadal from the first part of the season (South America) has nothing to do with Nadal here. He played extremely badly there, you only need to take a look at his results. Those were the weeks in which Nadal was not happy even after winning. If you saw him back then and in the last 10 days, you know what I'm talking about. I'm sure that Fognini from Rio would be limited to one a few games today despite winning back then. Fognini is now not as good as back then, he beat only Janowicz after that tournament and the Pole was injured. The Italian opened with a win over the young Rublev but the Russian had 6-3, 2-0 lead at one point. Fognini won only a thrid of his second match points in the first two sets but luckily for him, Rublev couldn't physically handle two tough matches in only two days. I would like to take a look back at some other Nadal-Fognini matches. The Italian got a set in Beijing two years ago but it's well known that Nadal declines physically after US Open. The match at Roland Garross was close but I don't think Fognini can do better than that. He was really impressive but still couldn't get a set. To sum up, Nadal is getting better and has won 8 titles here. As bad as he might have been in the last months, he is always good here and is against this year. Fognini, on the other hand, after the win over Nadal has 2-6 record. He lost a set to young Rublev yesterday and won only a third of his second serve points in the first two sets. He's in decline while Nadal started making progress in Monte Carlo and is now at his best this season. Details

I often had this bet even when Nadal played much better, with more confidence, when the numbers weren't in our favour this much. This season Rafa has a 7-2 ratio on clay, but he went over 9 games in the first set eight times. Not against Novak, which is a section in its own right, against Fognini, who doesn't play on a template, and Delbonis. That is why this bet passed against players like Arguello, Carreno Busta and Berlocq. They can't win points with their serve as well as Almagro can. This bet passed seven times in their last seven head-to-head matches. Only one match of those was on the hard surface. They met in Barcelona two times and the first set of both matches finished with the tie breaker. The surface here is pretty fast and service is an advantage, but that is not the only reason for this bet. Almagro defeated Nadal here last year, and he is now even more confident. Rafa is too careful, he stands far behind the baseline, and his passing shots are not as perfect as they used to be. I repeat, I regularly played this bet in the previous years when Nadal was a class of his own, when he was demolishing others. Nadal can rearly demolish anyone this year, and tradition says that the chances for that are even smaller against Almagro. With all this, there is a good chance that Almagro will be serving first because Rafa often picks the return after the coin toss. That is why my additional recommendation is to wait for the live-betting. Details