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If we look at the table, we will see that this is a clash of teams who are one thread away from the playoffs. However, the situation is as follows: if defeated, Kifisia would be very much jeopardized here because their head-to-head record with other competitors below them is bad. In the last round they're up against Panathinaikos. Considering that in the last match they're up against Aris and that they have 0-2 in head-to-heads against Lavrio, Kolossos would complicate their situation if they lose. Additionally, if they win, they will surely be among the top six teams, which means avoiding the strongest duo in the quarter-finals. The stakes are high, and we have two very good defense teams, and this margin is too high if you ask me. Kolossos are traditionally harsh on their court, they have only three overs in 12 matches, in crushing Arkadikos, Koroivos and Kavala. Kifisia have only two overs in visiting matches at this margin, in Pirei and against Koroivos (77-87), which is the only match which doesn't favor this bet. The first head-to-head remained at 121 and 137 points, Kolossos have been firm in front of their fans for years, and I doubt they will do anything different in such an important match, and Kifisia have shown that they're capable of limiting the strongest teams at only 75 points or less (PAO in Athens at 73, Oly at home at 75). Also, they are pointing out the defense in their team, patience and rhythm control. Considering everything stated here, I don't see a match at 155-160 points here. Details

A repeat of last year's Euroleague finale brings us a clash of two great teams that are not in great positions right now. Last night Brose defeated CSKA and further complicated the situation in this group and if Khimki defeat Zalgiris tonight, and Oly defeat Real, then five teams would have 6-6 record and share the third position ahead of the last two rounds. Defeat to Real would put the Greeks into a difficult position ahead of the game at Khimki and at home against CSKA. They cannot afford a slip up, and in such circumstances they usually turn toward their strongest weapon, strong defense. Aware of Real's attacking abilities, Sferopoulos is pushing defense and pace control to the forefront, and I expect them to be maximally aggressive from the start. Their Euroleague stats suggest 17/21 unders, 9/10 in home games, in which they are at an average of 139 points. Their only over was in the win over offensively oriented Khimki.
Real are also capable of playing at more points and that is why I am not betting on the maximum stake. However, Real are also able to play quality defense in a serious situation, so the last three games in the first stage, in which they could not afford a slip up, the limited Fener to 73, Bayern to 67, Strasbourg to 65 points. Last week they played at only 137 against Barcelona. Their first head-to-head against Oly was at 156, last year in Euroleague final at 137, both in Madrid. Additionally, not many get to play a lot in Piraeus, and Oly's games here rarely went over 160 points. In this situation the Greeks will play with maximum intensity in defense, and if Real lose, they will be in an unpleasant position ahead of the last two rounds, which bring them difficult games at Laboral and at home against Khimki. In such situation I expect them to be serious in defense and under this season's average. Even though it is not crucial, we should also add that their last five head-to-heads were under this margin. Details

In the first part of the season Zvezda were better with 32-30, but in the finals of the preparation tournament in Vrbas they won with 34-31. So, we have head-to-heads at 62 and 65 goals with uncertain outcomes, which is no coincidence because these teams prefer fast handball. Now we have a match in which points are not important at all, and if you ask me, this margin was missed because I expect at least 55-60 goals. This margin in a consequence of the statistics and the fact that Jugovic's home matches on average stay under 50 goals, but they were matches of bigger importance against different opponents.
Now they're hosting the second best offense of the league, the best visiting team who only stayed below this margin against the tough Sloga and Mataloplastika, in the derby against Partizan and Radnicki, in a match in which they allowed a single goal in the last 12 minutes. It's key that they don't sustain new injuries, because in a week the playoffs will start and in such circumstances I doubt they will abandon their game. Jugovic can respond to that, and the fact that they are without the defensively important Vukovljak favors the bet. Details

The margin is way too low here. It was 6,5 ahead of the first match in Chelyabinsk and I went with a handicap back then too but it didn't work because Medvedi weren't doing their best. They still had a lead from start till end to win by 4. They beat Stavropol, who are like the visitors quality-wise, and won 35-22. It was -9,5 and expected some -8,5 today so I think this margin is off. Medvedi didn't cover it in some home games but against some more powerful teams like Celjabinsk. They didn't cover it in only two home games - against Perm (-10) and against Stavropol (-5) but have covered it in three games after break they played with top teams. The trip to Chehov is the toughest task, which they traditionally lose (the last fives games by 7 goals). I expect that run to keep on going today. Medvedi should be very motivted since the points are carried and they just had a draw with Perm, who are breathing down their necks and who will beat Voronez today for sure. Details

Koksarov joining the team was a tuning point for Krasnodar. They limited Saratov to 24, Kaspija to 25 and Stavropol to 23 goals in test games. They limited Voronez to 21, Sungul to 25, Stavropol to 24 and Kaustik to 20. Those opponents might not have been that tough but the visit to Medvedi was definitely the ultimate challenge and they didn't concede over 26 there either. In those 8 games, only the blow-out against Sungul finished with over 55 goals.

Perm lost some important players over the winter and that affected their game. They do not have nearly as much attacking power as before, which gets obvious from their numbers the last few weeks. They scored 28 against Saratov, who always went over 60 points the last few feels. They scored 26 against Kaspija, 24 against Ufimocka , 26 against St. Petersburg and 26 against Celjabinsk. Some of the opponents were worse than Krasnodar but Perm still stayed under this margin. They never scored over 28 but no team scored over 28 against them either. After the break they have 28-28 against Saratov, who regularly finished games with 60 or more goals lately. The others stayed at 54 goals or less. The defense is currently a strong suit for Perm and given the fact they will be here with only 10 players and 2 goal keepers, according to the last information, they will not rush into anything. They have only one over in 8 games, in the blow-out against Sungul. That won't happen here. The first h2h went over 60 but things have changed and I think this will stay at 55 or less. Details

These odds shocked me. +2.5 would be for the higher stake if it was offered, but there's value to this bet, too. I expected odds to be evened out, Basel to even be a bit of a favorite, and instead, Fortitudo are favored for no obvious reason. They lost all four after the break. It was 14-8 in Basel after the first part, +7 at the beginning of the second, and the winner was obvious. Fortitudo got beaten by Stafa in the meantime, losing 10-4 after 15 minutes, and to Amicitia where the first half-time was evened out, and Amicitia dominated the rest. Then they also got crushed by Stafa last week, Fortitudo were beaten 30-16. Playing like that definitely doesn't make them deserve to be the favorites here.
Basel aren't that great in the away matches statistically, and I think that's the only reason for these odds. However, that's not realistic. Basel are much better in the away matches than they were at the beginning of the season, and Fortitudo are the weakest team of the league right now. Basel played a tie against Amicitia a few weeks back, and were having an advantage for most of that match. They conceded that goal for the tie five seconds before the end. They lost to Stafa, because of seven goals in the second part, but considering how Stafa look lately (much better than Fortitudo), that's not much of a failure. They've beaten both Fortitudo and Amicitia at home, winning five points in four rounds, and they're coming here to get two points and confirm staying in the league.
Basel easily won both home matches against Fortitudo, they lost 25-18 here in the first part of the championship, but that was because of Jurca's injury. Besides, they were more evened out then. Basel look much better now, and are coming here complete, which has been a rare occurrence in the last months. Fortitudo weren't even close to beating anyone in their last six matches. Basel lost only one after the break. I think these odds should be evened out at least, and I'm pretty convinced Basel will win. Details

Barcelona and Olympiacos definitely counted on getting through to Final Four but they are both 3-4 half way through this stage. They are in danger since who ever loses this game will drop into spot 6. Oly and Barca played 4 games in the quarterfinal last year and none of them finished with over 144 points. The first head-to-head in Greece finished with 136. This is a clash between two very good defenses when both are in a tough situation and both need a win. I therefore don't expect any kind of an efficient game. Granted, Barcelona have 5 overs in 8 home games but among those are games with Khimki, the blow-out against Karsiyaka and the less important meeting with Zalgiris in the first stage. The last game with Zalgiris that was marked by great shooting (92-86) and the one against Stelmet which finished with 150 points. They got limited to 140 against in the Kuban game but Kuban have one of the top defenses in Europe. The game against PAO here finished at 120 points. Besides, Barcelona had 11 games with over 150 points in the 12 until QFs home and then the two against Oly stayed at 130 and 139.

Olympicaos have 6 overs in 9 away games but against CSKA, Real, Efes ad Laboral twice. The only opponents that aren't so offense-oriented are Cedevita. Their game in Milan finished at 137 and the one against Limoges 143 even though that one was more important. Olympiacos' game style is well known, especially away and we can expect them to bring the pace down and limit the home team to about 70 points. Barcelona can respond in the same manner and I think this will definitely stay at under 150 points. Details

Celjabinsk are officially in spot 4 but I think it will be tough for them to finish regular season as a top 6 team. They have 5 games against the top three teams and a tough visit to Krasnodar in the last 7 rounds and it's quite clear they will lose all those 6 games. They played only one game against teams from the top - Perm won 31-21 here. Kaustik had a chance to score for a draw here, Sungul had a 4-goal lead early in the second half and Medvdi are better than all of those by 15-15 goals.

Medvedi are focused on the championship at the moment and it's clear they're just better than everyone else. They have a week to prepare for each game, a lot of players and cannot afford a slip. They beat Stavropol by 13 goals home, Saratov by 11 away. They struggled only against Kaspija but Kaspija are very good at the moment. Celjabinsk are not like that, they have a few good wins from the first part of the season (Kaspija, Krasnodar) but they were complete back then and the opponents weren't doing great. Celjabinsk are now without 4 important players, a few left during the break and I think this will finish with a difference of 10 goals. The first half handicap is a good option as well but Celjabinsk don't have all the players to count on so I decided to go with this option. Against teams of their level, Medvedi covered this without any problems. Details

There are a lot of reasons for me to believe that this game will finish with 40-145 points max. First of all, it's extremely important for both teams. Lavrio are trying to stay in the league and this is one of the best chances they'll have for a win. Every game is important for Kolossos in the close battle for playoffs. No team hit 80 or more against them and all the top teams played at their arena. They went over 150 in only 3 games - Panathinaikos at 151, Koroivos at 153, with 49 points in the final quarter and 162 with Kavala. They hit 81 in the win over Koroivos, which I think won't happen today. The results away are quite colorful but they do much better in defense home. Only PAOK beat hem easily there, everything else got limited to 140 points.

We have Kolosson on the other side, who are also very good in defense and none of their last 4 games finished with over 144 points. Going further into the past, they went over 146 only away against Rethymno but that doesn't really compare to this game. Kolossos went over this margin in 7 out of 9 games this season when Panathinaikos and Olympiacos trashed them and they trashed Koroivos and Arkadios. I don't expect this to be settled early int he second half. I expect a close match and that normally leaves Kolossos under against teams like their opponents. Let's mention the first h2h in Rhodes which Lavrio won 72-61. I don't think this will go over 150 points. Details

Pfadi and Bjerringbro are defensively oriented teams, and their championship average is around 50 goals so I expected that margin today. Of their 12 home games this season, Pfadi went over in only 4, against Polva, Stafa, Basel and Pulawy. Bjerringbro went over 52 goals three times in 12 away games. In the Danish championship, they concede under 24 goals per game and they are capable of limiting Pfadi around that number. On the other hand, this is the last chance for the Swiss if they want to advance and I expect them to play well. They conceded 31 in Minsk, but that was an opponent of different profile. In their other four games after the break, Pfadi conceded 18, 14, 18 and 24 goals. At home this season, they conceded 27 against Kadetten, Pulawy 25, no one else scored them over 24. I think this will be a game in which both teams will unlikely score over 25 goals and this bet seems like a good option. Details

The situation here should be completely clear. A few days ago it was announced that Zeleznicar were disqualified from the league, they filed a complaint but that's just avoiding the inevitable. It is hard to imagine the state in which the players will be today and what their motivation might be. We could say that they will want to prove themselves for future acquisitions, but they are young players who lack quality and they cannot compete against the leaders of the championship. They lost three players over the break who scored around 10 goals per game in the first part of the season. There is some talk that their best player, right back MIlic, asked for a contract termination.
Zeleznicar provided some resistance at home, but since mid-October, when the situation got more critical, they suffered hard defeats away. Radnicki defeated them 36-22, Morava 37-26, Jugovic 29-20, Sloga 27-16. Zvezda have the best offense in the league and they can easily score 40 goals here, in my opinion. They won the first game 32-26, and that was at the start of the season. Before the break, Zeleznicar were conceding well over 30 goals at home, Partizan defeated them 43-28. However, with this squad, I doubt they can score over 25. They only fared relatively well against Pozarevac, when Stefanovic scored 7, Pernar 5, Mitic 6. It is not known if he will play today, there is no information about the lineup, but even if Zeleznicar play with all their players, this game cannot stay under 15 goal difference, in my opinion. Zvezda have not covered this so far in the championship, but it is clear that this Zeleznicar are several levels below the rest of the league, and other games are not a good measure. Zvezda's fast handball will come to the fore here, I expect a lot of easy goals from counterattacks, and increasing of the lead throughout all 60 minutes. Details

I decided not to bet on Perm-Saratov game, even though I though Perm should have been such a heavy favorite. That game confirmed that they will struggle a lot now that some key players left. They are now a team that is mid-table material. What Kaspija did a few days ago makes me even more confident about this bet. A win over Medvedi proved they can beat anyone, even though Medvedi didn't have a good day and underestimated them. However, the win in St. Petersburg only days later was great. They were in control from the start, had a 9-point lead in the second half and left the home team with no chance. Perm used to be St. Petersburg level but they are not there anymore. Besides, Kaspija will now play home and they should be underestimate like this. I think they will win here and the +1,5 serves me as a sort of a fail-safe.

They didn't cover this handicap home only at the start against St. Petersburg. Perm, on the other hand, have 6 away wins but that was back when they were much better. They beat Stavropol and Saratov and trashed bottom-table teams like Celjabinsk back then. All of them are worse than Kaspija are now. Stavropol had a 26-26 tie with 6 minutes left on the clock, while Stavropol had a 5-goal lead in the first half. Perm are now not as good as they used to be. Even when things were better at season start, they managed to beat Kaspija by only 2 goals. They now don't have such good choice of players and the quality to destroy opponents late in games. They could struggle now, like against Saratov on Saturday. Kaspija, on the other hand, trashed St. Petersburg away. They need points here since they're in the last spot that would get them into the race for the championship. Perm are in spot 3, they will be in that race anyway but even Voronin said they cannot count on the greatest achievement anymore. Details

The difference in quality is huge here and if Veszprem have a proper approach at least to some extent, this should finish with a goal difference of at least 25. This is the last check for the Hungarians before the Champions League. Sabate has all the players at his disposal and I expect him to look for a serious game. They beat Nexe here by 18 goals a few days ago and the team from Nasice is at least 10-15 goals more powerful than Strumica. The team from Macedonia lost by 19 goals in Belarus but could have lost by more than 20 if Meshkov were more motivated. Veszprem are better than Meshkov. Their defense will be like a wall for the limited visitors. Strumica already lost by 29 in Zagreb, by 26 in Presov and by 15 in Skopje. Vardar were not doing their best back then as the 27 goals scored suggest. To sum up, I expect Veszprem to score over 40 goals here and to limit Strumica to under 20. This handicap is a sure thing for me. Details

Vardar mostly did as much as they had to for points in SEHA league games against weaker teams. They beat Strumica 35-26 away, Spartak 36-27, Vojvodina 31-26. Looking at home games, Vojvodina 37-27, Strumica 42-27, Tatran 39-32. The only exception were Spartak (36-18) in the last game of this season. A lot of players are worn out after EC, they have the trip to Nasice tomorrow and I expect Vardar to play as much as necessary to win here. They have enough quality to score over 30 but given the circumstances, I don't think their defense will go full throttle all the way through.

Borac have only one over in 5 SEHA home games. That one game finished at 56 goals, but they played Veszprem and Zagreb and struggled for each goal. Two were completely different - very important against direct rivals Strumica and Spartak. Things were close against Taratn but the Slovaks don't have Vardar's offense power. Coach Dvorsek prefers faster paced game and he has now finally had time to get the team organized how he wanted it. This game is just a bonus for them, they said they would try and be faster and play a more attractive game. But I don't think their defense is good enough to make this a close game. The first game finished at 39-27. I think this will end at around 60, maybe even more. Details

Even when it mattered more, Kataja played attractive basketball, for an extra point and almost all of their games in the competition were in the over. Today's game is not relevant, this game is the Finns good bye to Europe and I expect they will want to give their fans a good game. They will go for the win, but I expect fast basketball with fast pace and a lot of points. Their first head-to-head game finished 96-85 for Rishon, it was a much more important game, and the Israelis thisrd game in four days. It still went over 180 points, and Rishon had 77 shots from the floor which is the best indicator of the pace of the game. Rishon have some result motivation in this game, they still have a chance to fight for the top spot in the group and they announced that they are coming for the win. They are good defensively and motivated so they could leave Kataja at around 80 or under points, so this option seems better to me than the overall over. The only chance for Kataja, in my opinion, is a great shooting night and a win in a game at a bigger number of points, but in any case, Rishon should go up to 90 points here. The stats are not in favor of this bet, but that first head-to-head game, and especially Kataja's game style and character of today's game are strong arguments for me which neutralize those certain statistical disadvantages. Kataja conceded over 80 points in the championship against the likes of Korikobrat and Nokia, Rishon have a lot of attacking potential with numerous Americans on the team, they scored 94 to Maccabi at Tel Aviv and I think that in these circumstances, it shouldn't be a problem for them to go over this margin. Details

Rethymno are far from great on the road this season but they prefer faster style and do not lack offensive potential. The margin set at them here is too low. Now that they are complete, I'm sure Rethymno will get better to fight for a spot in the playoffs. Rethymno scored 95 against a good Kolossos defense last round, which was the first game in which they were complete. They have only three unders in 15 games at this margin, one of them being the first h2h against Panathianikos. The home team hit 43 points in the first half back them but did horribly in the second one to get limited to 60. They got limited to 60 to Aris in a very close game. The only failure is the game against Apollon, in which they scored 57 points. I expect Panathinaikos to secure the win early on and allow Rethymno's offensive potential to shine. Their home game against Oly, when they hit 70 points, was similar to that.
Panathianiakos have 10 over at this margin in 15 championship games, 5 of 7 home. They limited Kavala, on of the worst teams in the league, and Airs, who were in a crisis back then, to an under. Panathinaikos took a 30-point lead by half time and let go in the second half to allow 38 points. They had a very tough game with Darussafaka three days ago. That win was very necessary and has exhausted the players. Tehy have an EL visit to Zagreb in three days, which means Djordjevic wil try and rest the key players as much as possible. Panathinaikos played a few home games on Mondays this season and always allowed over this margin (PAOK 69, Kifisia 67, Trikala 64). Rethymno are no worse than those teams. Given the circumstances, I expect the home team to hit at least 65-70 points, just like last season when they hit 70 and 77 in h2h games. Details

I expected the odds to at least be even here, or Egypt to be the favorites. The fact they're playing home has proven to be a great advantage for them so far. They're doing great, they never allowed any opponents to score over 20 goals (conceded an average of just over 17). No one came even close to beating them and only Algeria in the first round lost by less than 10 goals. Tunisia did't lot a single game wither here but they did struggle in some games, especially against Angola and Cameroon. They will now face the best defense here and Bannour might not play, which would be an extra blow. Nouet says that Egypt are the favorites, perhaps to take the pressure off of his players and perhaps because he knows how much home court advantage means. Hasan Moustafa would love to see Egypt at the Olympics and this is a better chance for them than the qualifiers. I expect the refs to favor the home team to some extent and since this should be a tough game, I don't expect Tunisia to win by 2 or more goals. Details

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