betprepare.com

I normally don't go with handicaps at favorites in football, except when it's the second leg and the goal-difference matters, but I simply cannot miss out on this. Olympiacos are so much better than their opponents this season, they have a goal difference of 24-5 and have won by 2 or more goals in 10 out of the 11 games (the only against Panathinaikos not included). They didn't beat only Atromitos by more than two goals, even though they were two goals up even in that game. Olympicaos are problems-free ahead of this game since they always deal with this opponent easily. They won 4 h2h games in the last two seasons easily. Granted, Oly have an important CL game coming up, but they play such important games every season and still beat their opponents regardless. Their roster is so good that playing two competitions doesn't affect them. The home team seemed to have given up on this game even before the kick-off, which is why I think Oly should win this easily. Details

Anzhi have the worst defense in the league, so far they conceded 29 goals, second worst are Ufa with 24 conceded, and all other teams are at around 30, which talks best about the lack of defensive quality. The especially intriguing thing is the way Anzhi concede, their defense seems confused and unconnected. I don't want to exaggerate, but they conceded many goals that look like they are from those video clips from lower leagues in which a team deliberately allows a goal, but doesn't want it to be too obvious, and they conceded around 10 such goals this season.. Second-to-last Mordovia defeated them 4-0 in the last round, the first two goals were awful, and the fourth came after a badly set offside trap. I gave an example from only one game, but that happens all the time, Anzhi are not at the bottom by accident, and the astonishing thing is that in half of their games they were more dominant.
Lokomotiv are not an offensive force, when we look at the numbers, but the Russian league is like that and you have to adjust to it. After Zenit (29) and CSKA (28), Lokomotiv actually have the third best offense in the league with 26 goals which is a fact that is in favor of this bet, and Lokomotiv should score against a team like Anzhi. The first game at Kaspiysk finished 3-1 for the team from Moscow, Lokomotiv were losing but they made a comeback thanks to two goals that Anzhi 'gave' them, and the third one they 'scored'. The only doubt about this game is will I bet -0.75 or Lokomotiv's over 1.5, but this is a much better option because, in case the away team scores, we still have a chance to win, even bigger actually because Lokomotiv will have a greater need for goals and it shouldn't be a problem to score them against the worst defense in the league. Details

Even though head-to-head games so far don't suggest there will be many goals here, these teams are rather different this season and I have every reason to believe that this game will be different than the previous ones. Both teams went over 2,5 goals in 6 out of 9 games this season, with the average of 3,3 ta Giannina and 3,4 goals at Panetolikos. The home team have the worst defense in the league which conceded 20 goals so far, while Giannina's defense is third worst. The 2,5 over has great odds but I'll rather do with a much safer option - the over 2 option. Looking at the 1,5 margin per game, these teams were under it only once in 9 games, which is why I expect at least 2 goals here. Details

These two teams are offense-oriented and given the stats, I believe we are to see a lot of goals today, which is why these odds surprise me. Aarhus recorded an over in the last 3 games and have 9 overs in 13 championship games. Sonderjyske's stats are even better for this tip (10 overs, went over the 2,5 margin in 9 out of the last 10 matches). H2H matches are important as well, because the last 9 of them finished with at least 3 goals. All those numbers suggests we're in for another entertaining game. i think the chances for an over are some 60 percent, which is why this over seems completely off. Details

I recently bet on Gefle's over against Orebro, it ended 2-2, but I have a reason to believe this match will go that way, too. After Orebro, Gefle were beaten 3-1 against Kalmar, rounding the number of matches that went over to 10. On the other hand, Atvidaberg know they've been eliminated for a while now, and their matches were ending with a big number of goals, as well, the last five to be exact. Nobody is expected to get any special result today, so I expect this match to be like those these two teams played lately. Details

I supported Giannina at home once this season. They failed, but considering their guest situation, I "have" to give them another chance. Asteras look catastrophic, they can't even win at home, they're tired from the match on Cyprus which they lost, and they have huge problems with absences. They're practically missing half of the team and Giannina, whom I believe as hosts and whose weaker results are a consequence of the tough fixture, should use. Details

KooTeePee are still not sure about the playoffs, and in order to succeed in that they need a point (or for Jaro not to win in an away match against Seinajoki), but today they can do a lot more. By beating Ilves (and with Vaas not winning in an away match against Mariehamn) they would avoid the playoffs. Ilves have been safe for some time, and that safety killed their motivation so they lost the last four matches, and I believe that they will conclude the season like that. The hosts are missing a single player (Anttilainen), while Ilves have one suspended (Juuti), and three of them are questionable (Aho, Korte, Hjelm), but there is absolutely no sense to expose anyone to a new injury in such an unimportant match, at least for the away team. Details

Columbus started the new season with six losses, their worst start in history, but that's not where this pick is going. What marked their games was a big number of goals total. They went over 5 of 6 times, and the numbers they ended with were 6, 7, 6, 10, 9 and 5 in the last match against Chicago. The only reason was Chicago's great defense, and McElhinney wasn't bad, either, so even that match could have gone to over. The Islanders had an over in 3 of 5 times, and the both times they stayed under was in their first two matches of the season, against Chicago (and they weren't far off even then, 4 and 5 goals). After that, they played matches at 6, 7, and 9 goals, and the last four between these two teams ended at 8, 6, 9 and 7, so it only makes sense that this match will be a joy to watch. Details

Gefle and Orebro managed to reach their goal and secure a spot in the league for next season, meaning they are completely stress-free ahead of this game. Given the performances they've been putting up lately, there is more than enough reason for us to believe they will keep on doing well today. Gefle finished the last 8 games in the 2,5 over, while 5 out of the last 6 h2h games also finished in over. I expect a match for the fans in which we will see at least three goals. Details

Two rounds before the end of the Finnish championship, the top three teams are all within only two points. Longtime champions, Helsinki, are surprisingly in the third position and it will take them a miracle to defend the title, Seinajoki are the number one, and in my opinion, Rovaniemi are the biggest favorites to win the title even though they are a point behind the leaders. Seinajoki are playing in Tuurku today against Inter who can still earn a spot in European competitions, so there will be no easing up there. It is more likely that Inter will remain undefeated than for the leaders to win, so Rovaniemi have their chance to go into the last round as leaders. To make things even better, their task in the last round is also difficult, they are facing unburdened Lahti, while Seinajoki will play at home against Jare, for whom this will be the last chance to avoid relegation. This schedule is only an additional motivation to give their 120% today in order to win and take over the top spot with a possible slip up by Seinajoki.
Kuopio are completely unburdened, they haven't been playing well for a while now, so the home team shouldn't have any problems today. Also important for this bet are their head-to-head games in Rovaniemi - home team celebrated in the last five games, so they should extend their run today. This is a historical chance for Rovaniemi, it is unlikely that this kind of situation will repeat itself in future, and by that I mean an incredibly bad season for Helsinky, and of course, as good for Rovaniemi... Details

It's hard to say something objectively, and at the same time not to insult Greece. But, I think we should be honest and say that they look very miserable, the results speak for themselves. In nine matches they don't have a single win. They lost twice to Faroe Islands, and prior the last round they "secured" the last place in the group. Today they should play for honor, but Greece have been announcing that for a couple of rounds now. I doubt anything will change today about that. Their motivation is a clear zero, they are shattered and I doubt anything will change until a new manager comes along. On the other hand, we have a team who are very motivated and who will try to do anything they can to reach second place. Of course, a lot more will depend on Faroe Islands than themselves, but as long as there is a chance, they will fight. In these qualifications they're looking very well, they lost a single game, the first one and quite tragically, but they look like a team who have everything they need to beat Greece. Everything is on Hungary's side, and the only thing that isn't is Romania playing against the Faroe Islands who are not dangerous opponents. It's possible that Faroe Islands will create havoc for Romania (the odds or them are 1,30), but we won't rely on that. If their opponents were any stronger, I would play a +0 handicap on Hungary, I would even think of a clear win for lesser odds, but in this case I will be more reserved. The handicap with which a draw would bring us some profit is the best solution. Even if Hungary find out that Romania have 3-0 at half-time, it's hard to lose from this Greece. No one did so far, so why would the Hungarians who "need" this and who have been undefeated for eight matches now? Details

Giannina had a tough fixture at the start of the season, but they managed to win seven points and thanks to home matches. They beat Atromitos and PAOK on their home court, which is no small feat, and they are usually very uncomfortable hosts and I see Iraklis as no threat. So far they scored only two goals, and in today's match they will be additionally weakened. In each line they're missing a player, Bartolini's not in the defense, midfield is mising Roman, and the offense Perrone, one of the scorers of Iraklis's two goals. Even if Iraklis were complete, it would pay off to bet on Giannina's win, so you shouldn't miss this one. Details

Betting handicap on a Greek league favorite isn't the luckiest pick, but there are enough elements here to support the home team. First, Panetolikos are one of the most unpleasant hosts, even Olympiakos would struggle here in the last two seasons. Panathinaikos beat them at the beginning of the season, but just one match, and I can't really count it important when the opponent was that strong. Panetolikos beat Asteras 2-0 in an away match in the last round already, and are ready for their next duel. Their opponent Panthrakikos started the new season weakened, and the first two matches confirmed they're struggling to stay. They were beaten in both home matches. Besides the bad start, they're also going to play without their best player and first scorer today, who scored a third of all their goals last season. Also, their away efficiency last seasons was only nine points won. They never have it easy against Panetolikos, they lost 3-1 twice in the last two seasons, and Panetolikos were much less of a favorite then than they are today. The home team's win is a sure thing, in my opinion, and it's very likely that the difference could be bigger suggested, so this -1 handicap definitely sounds like a great pick. Details

Spartak traditionally don't have any problems against Krylya - they defeated them in five out of last six games they played, and they won in the last three away games. We had a situation similar to this one in the second round when we had a prediction at -0.75 CSKA, it finished at 2-0, and I would feat the Samaran team today either. Even though they have three points, they are playing horribly. They are unable to create a real chance, they had only one shot at goal against CSKA, the same against Amkara in the previous round. In a game they won, the one against Anzhi, they were supposed to be demolished. Anzhi hit the goal post three times, missed numerous other chances, and Krylya managed to win with only two shots on goal. And I will look at that goal they scored with some reserve, because it was scored after a corner kick, and not directly after the cross, and Anzhi's defense is responsible for that goal because they didn't cleat the situation right away. So, Krylya shot on goal only four times in three rounds, and they somehow managed to kick that one ball into the goal. On the other hand, Spartak finally radiate with confidence. The game against Krasnodar has shown that the team has improved with the arrival of Dmitri Alenichev, because Krasnodar previously demolished them (3-1. 4-0, 4-0). After that win, they celebrated against Rubin, and they haven't conceded in any of those games. A small stain on their record is the first round against Ufa, but that was one of those games when you simply cannot score, and the opponent scores as soon as they shoot on the goal, and even 60 games with an extra player on the pitch didn't make a difference then. All in all, I think that Krylya can't cause a serious threat today. Details

Krylya Sovetov traditionally don't stand a chance against Armija. The team from Samara lost the last 11 matches against them, and six of those were quite convincing. Five matches were played in Samara since 2009, and CSKA won by two or more difference four times. Considering everything shown in the first round, I have a reason to believe CSKA will get another win. Krylya managed to get three points, but more thanks to luck than skills. Anzhi should have beaten them with a big handicap, but their goal post shook three times, and numerous other chances the hosts had were missed. Only one corner kick decided that match. CSKA have an experienced defense who don't struggle with those kiddy problems, and one corner kick against a team like Krylya definitely shouldn't decide the final outcome. Their opponent from the last round, the last year's fifth-placed Rubin, managed to shoot into the goal only once in 90 minutes. CSKA dominated, they had 20 shots, 13 of which into the goalpost, but Rubin's goalie Ryzhikov saved some impossible shots. What makes it similar to the match in Kspiysk is that they shot the goalpost three times. Rubin were supposed to be crushed, but it ended with only 1-0. CSKA are playing their regular customer today, these two faced each other in the pre-season already. CSKA won 2-0, and I expect something similar today. I'll go for -0.75 handicap, so in case of any win, we'll still get profit. Details

Although the odds have dropped significantly, I think the bet for goals in this match still has a value, despite that this is the first match in which, as is well known, both teams are usually always careful. Both Vikingur and Rosenborg play extremely offensive for some "normal" chances. We didn't have a chance to see Vikingur in action, but Rosenborg play around with their opponents in their league; after 14 played matches their goal difference is 40-14. Those numbers result in an average of 3.9 goals per match, and Vikingur have the same average. Today I would expect the hosts to be a bit more closed up, but Rosenborg should open them up without difficulty because they have nothing to fear and I expect them to dominate the entire match. This season they were over 2.5 10 times in the league, and seve times over 3.5 which is half of their matches, and against teams with very strong defenses. A small minus is that Rosenborg will be without their second scorer Helland who scored nine of their goals, but realistically, each of Rosenborg's offense players should be able to deal with Vikingur's defenders without much problems.
(I see that the bet is not widely available. I put an over 3, and if that's not available, then over 3.5 is a bet for one unit less.) Details

I appreciate Ural and what they've done in the last two years, but I think they don't stand as much chance as the betting houses would suggest. The reason is very simple, and that's the huge number of absences in the midfield. The second scorer of the team, Erokhin, is out. He played in 25 league matches. Four others who are on the absence list played around 20. I expect Tomsk to dominate the turf, and in the end they could win. Still, since this is the first match, both teams will be more careful, a draw seems like a possibility, so this handicap seems like the best solution. Details

Previous h2h matches between these teams suggest a tough game. The Russian media agree that we are not in for a beautiful game of football today and I agree with that as well. Only 2 goals were scored in 3 games these teams played so far and their point-records suggest this one will be no different. Still, the odds at under are really too low, the under 2 option is not the best solution and logic demands a much better tip - that Arsenal won't lose. Mordovia are still not in the clear but only a miracle would see them relegated, both given the number or points their have and the fixture schedule. I think the motivation at Arsenal is running much higher. The visitors lost the last two games but played the future champions Zenit and Krasondar, who are beating everyone. They played the latter on a neutral pitch and they did as best as they could. They won 3 games before that, two of which home against direct rivals in the race for avoiding relegation. A point would be satisfactory for both teams today and if we take a look at all three aforementioned matches (the visiting team won twice 1-0, while the third game finished as a goalless draw), I think the home team won't win today either. Details

The motivational factor is usually the most important in the final stage of the season, and in this game we have a clash af a team fighting for Europe against a team with a safe mid-table spot. Rubin have faltered in the last two rounds, but in general, they were good during the spring season, especially at home. On the other hand, Kuban have been awful in the championship, they won only one of 13 championship games since Kuchuk arrived, they drew in five games, and lost seven of them. They also lost four out of five away games, at that time. They will have no special motivation today and I give Rubin a great advantage. With that, even though this pick is based on motivation, the absence of Kuban's two first-team players is another plus. This pick would otherwise go for a higher stake, but the rate has dropped and that is why the middle stake is the most appropriate one. Details

It's true Xanthi are very strong at home, but I still don't see why they should be favored this much in this situation. The home team have nothing left to play for, they played an aggressive cup match a few days ago, got to the finals, so it's easily possible that they'll play relaxed today. On the other hand, Asteras come to the playoff, every point matters so the difference to Panathinaikos and PAOK would be as small as possible, and this is an ideal chance for them to take a step forward. I usually wouldn't bet on a +0 handicap, but considering that the home team are Xanthi who only lost twice at home this season, I'll settle for a +0.25 handicap. Details