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I expect the Russian veteran to lose convincingly once again. He is not serious about tennis anymore. After the US open, he cannot use the protected ranking privilege anymore. The only option, since he is not in Top 600 is futures or waiting for challenger wildcards. I don't think he has much motivation to make a comeback. His results and the number of tournaments he plays prove that.

He is 1-5 this season, He beat Krueger, a challenger player and got just 3 games against Muller the next day. He recorded all 5 defeats in straight sets. In those 12 sets, he won over 3 games just once. That is no coincidence as the match against Krajicek proved last week. Tursunov got just 5 games against a player who cannot even make a comeback to Top 200. Paire limited Tursunov to 5 games in July, Fognini at 7 in Wimbledon and those players often give sets away.

Lu managed to get back on tour successfully after elbow problems. Chengdu was his comeback tournament. He had some problems, as expected, but ended up getting the title. He did the same in Jianin but not as convincing. Winning those two tournaments might not seem like anything special but he beat Donskoy by 5 and Berankis by 8 in those matches. I would bet on both of them if they played Tursunov here. The problem here is h2h record. The Russian did win all 4 last matches in straight sets but the last one took place 7 years ago. I don't think that matters now. Those was a different time. Lu is expected to win this easily. Details

Cecchinato has been in fine form since early April. He has played at seven strong challengers and reached at least the quarter-final at every of them. He won a title, reached another final. Most importantly, his defeats weren't really slip-ups. Only the defeat to Pedro Sousa could be seen as such, but the Portuguese won that title with impressive performances.
He defeated Caruso twice in that period, by 8 points two months ago. Caruso won two futures back then, he was in great form, and still won 20 points less. Then Cecchinato won at the Roland Garros qualifications by 9. They have played 5 head-to-heads, two at futures, and Cecchinato won them all. One of their matches was open until the end, but the other four wins were convincing (by 8, 5, 8 and 9 points).
We cannot say that Cecchi is a classic smasher, his record in wins on clay at the -4,5 is 27-27, but he plays in strong European competition and a lot of those matches have nothing to do with this. He defeated players like Rublev, Kovalik, Trungelitti, Krajinovic and similar, and they would also be favorites against Carusa. But there are some minuses there, so he did not cover the -4.5 against Belotti and Mesaros, but the head-to-head here with enough recent matches is enough for me to believe that the minus is not big enough.
Caruso has been known to have flashes in the past, he almost defeated Coric (two weeks before that lost to Cecchinato), won a set against Kachanov, played 20 games against Ramos, but that was a while ago. Of his last six defeats, two were to Cecchinato. He also lost to Travaglia, Giustino, Mannarino and Anderson (irrelevant). He covered the +5.5 only against Mannarino, but the Frenchman played with back pain. Before that he was collecting points at the futures.
Interestingly, Cecchi lost in straight sets to Bolleli in Roland Garros qualifiers, the day after he thrashed Caruso. When he defeated him two months ago in Francavilla, he almost lost to Krajinovic, he did not cover the handicap against Berettini and lost to Pedro Sousa. That is proof that e does not have to play his best tennis to defeat Caruso. That is why I expect Cecchinato to record a convincing win today. Details

Paz is 22 years old and has recorded 5 CH wins until this week. He played qualifiers here and recorded another three. At first glance, those are good wins but he was a favorite against WU and Chiudinelli. He was not a favorite only against Gabashvili. The Russian is not longer in 150 and is now only a shadow of his former self. I'm not scared of those matches. Paz has just one Top 100 match ever. He won 6 games against Montiero. He forced Dutra into a long set late last season and is clearly displayed progress. He's worth more than his ranking but this is the match of his carrier, not only because Tipsarevic is after his 4th straight CH title. Janko played the match of the tournament yesterday. He won 22/23 points on first serve against Kavcic, limiting him to 5 games. There were matches in which he didn't cover the margin but the fact is - he is 18-0 and has lost just one set at CH level this season. He should not drop any here. Realistically, we expect a double break at least in one set. Details

Dutra is Top 70. That is not ideal ranking and he clearly has limitations. He's great at ch level but has only two Top 50 wins. He is 0-22 in sets against Top 20 players. There were some close matches with Simon and Cilic but they are much different than Nadal. Bautista is more relevant here. Dutra played 5 sets with him and won 3, 2, 0, 1 and 3 games in them.
Last week, Nadal limited his opponents to 4 or less games in 3 matches. Those opponents were much more dangerous than Dutra. He didn't limit Schwartzman to that many games but the Argentine played Dutra twice last season and let him take 5 games. Also, Rafa is 8-0 on clay court this season against players outside of Top 50. He limited the more dangerous Bagnis to 6 games at Roland Garros, limited Montanes to 4, Busta to 5 and Bedene to 6 games. All of those have much more potential. Four years ago in New York, Dutra got 3 games against Rafa in three sets. He should not get more here, especially now that Rafa is on a roll and playing home where he's been just as successful as in Monte Carlo (48-3). Details

Tipsarevic is 14-0 this season at CH level (lost one set). He struggled here in the first round even though he could have covered the -4,5 but he got better with each next match. He limited Martin to 5 games and he had 7 straight wins. He beat Bourge without dropping a single serve and he had 20 wins this season and is headed towards Top 100.
On top of everything, Tipsaervic is 13-4 in CH final. As impressive as Otte's road to final is, he's never met a Top 10 player. He beat Halys, whom he beat before. Those are the only Top 200 wins. He lost to Gai by 6, Kamke and Lestienne by 5 and Karatsev by 4 in other matches. Janko is a step away from 100 points, he displayed quality against better players here and Otte hasn't lost by less than 5 games in the last 6 defeats at this or similar level. Details

Tipsaervic was not invited on the DC team with a leg injury. There is no official confirmation he is fully fit now but he said on multiple occasions this season that he won't play if not fully fit. He had a few surgeries and cannot afford new major injuries. Since he decided to go to China, I'm convinced he is ready. Two weeks ago, he talked about his plan for this part of the season. He said that he will play a few challengers during European clay court season. He wants to get points ahead of the tournaments he loves most - grass court season and the US tournaments. He also said he doesn't want to go back to challengers after that. He is definitely above that. He won two challengers early in the season after dropping just one set. In 8 out of 10 matches, he won by at least 6 games. This tournaments is played on clay and he won it from qualifiers last season. He didn't drop a set until final. Munoz is using protected ranking. He was 4-15 on clay court last year and has finished his season in July. He started this season in February and won 7 out of 10 futures matches. At the moment, he is far from the kind of performances that got him in Top 70. Tipsarevic wants the title here and the 100 points, Munoz wants to see where he is. Munoz covered this against Seppi and Almagro last season. He won sets in those matches but he covered the 4,5 only 3 three times in 12 losses on clay court this season. Tipsaervic, on the other hand, is 15 for 4 in covering the -4,5 when it comes to wins at CH level and ATP qualifiers. I believe I'll go with Tipsarevic throughout this week. Munoz is not a proper test for him. Details

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This is the third tournament for Sijsling and he clearly isn't ready. He finished the last season in August due to a finger injury but he also had problems with his shoulder and had minor knee surgery. He said he won't play AO qualifiers because he's not ready. He played indoors on a fast surface which suits him. He beat Jahn, was in pain and retired in the next match. The last information from his official page suggests that he decided to go with this tour and see if it work. It's not working. He got just 5 sets against De Minaur in Canada, won only a third of second serve points. As he went on open hardcourt, the problems got even more obvious. His opponent Coppejans had a break point in all of 7 service games. Seijsling lost his serve 5 times. He lost a break in both meetings. The second set lasted only 17 minutes. I don't see why anything would change now against Souza. The Brazilian is close to Top 100 but more importantly, he is healthy and focused. He has last season's final to defend and has been doing well lately, I believe in him. Sijsling will take care of the rest. I believe he's get a few games here too. Details

In the last month and a half Tomic hasn't been playing, and that's clear. He was uninterested against King, he waltzed around against Darcis, and then he retired against Young "because it was very hot". He said he needs to work on himself, but he showed once more at Indian Wells that he doesn't feel like playing. The four games he won against Fratangel, and he only won four points at the second serve. In short, as soon as there was a exchange, the point would go for the American. In the meantime it became clear that Tomic again won't be in the national team for the next DC. The triangle Bernard-father-selector Hewitt isn't working. I don't see how anything will change with Tomic here compared to Indian Wells. He's here because he has to be, and if he skips the tour, he would have to pay it himself. That's the same way he lost to Nieminen three years ago for 28 minutes, he set a negative record on the tour. After the match he said it was a message for ATP organizers. My estimate is that he can hardly wait for this tour to end and to go home. Some things can't happen overnight. Today I would bet on anyone against Tomic, but today I also have a player who's in the mood. Kukushkin played seven matches in the last eight days. Fatigue shouldn't be an excuse because he had an easy job in the qualifications, and a day's rest before this match. He's an experienced player and he'll use the opportunity. I'm convinced. Details

This is a situational pick. Sijsling ended his season in August because of a finger injury, but he had issues with his shoulder as well. He also had a minor knee surgery. He said in December that he won't be playing the Australian Open qualifiers, that he's not ready yet. Then he showed up in fast indoors end February, in conditions that he likes. He beat Jahn, complained about the pain, and then retired in the next match. It's clear he's not ready, he's not healthy, but it's hard to wait and watch your standings go down.That's why he applied to Drummondville and two Mexican challengers. It was an attempt, and if it works, it works - that's what last week proved. He took five games from De Minauro who twisted his ankle in the fourth game of the match. The Dutch won only third of the second serve points, lost his serve three times, and lost the breaks. His serve is worth less outdoors, and I don't think he stands a chance today. His draw hasn't been favorable this week, either. Coppejans got eliminated from the top 100, and lost his rankings fast, but he's healthy and that's what matters. He beat Ram and Chung in Delray Beach, reminded us of what he can do, and then caught the rhythm with eight futures matches. He applied to that tournament afterwards (USA hardcourts), and then played the qualifiers. Even though I think Belgian can be tricky, as his results would suggest, and the things he could've made and didn't, he should easily take advantage of Sijsling's problems here. The Dutch is healthy and he had far weaker results in the open hardcourts then indoors in the last years. Details

Mayer had a lot of injury struggles which forced him to start this season later. He retired in the opening match and didn't do great at the last two tournaments either. But he lost to well-experienced challenger player Ceccinato and a player of ATP quality who made a comb back (Bolelli). He limited Lama to 4 games, Sorgi to 4 two days ago. That is important because he lost to Sorgi late last season. He fired 9 aces, won 87 percent of first serve points. That is a good sign. His motivation is not questionable because he is trying to get back into Top 100. Only wins can get his confidence back. He might not record easy win but he has 5 unders at 19,5 and one over when it comes to wins on hard court. He is now to face the weakest name on the list. Zukas is a qualifier who beat Londer in main draw. That is his first CH win at second CH tournament. He never played a Top 100 player and has 0-5 against Top 300. He lost by 6 to Munar, by 4 to Quiroz, 9 to Linzer, 9 to Dutra and 10 to Kicker. Last season he played two challengers and won two games against Jarry in qualifiers, three games against Dutra in main draw. Early this month, Munar limited him to 6 games at hard court. Motivated Mayer shouldn't allow more. Details

Federer's score against players out of Top 100 has been 20-0 since 2014. There were a lot of former Top 50s, so let's just mention those who are similar to Rubin. Willis had seven games in Wimbledon. Basilashvili had five games here, Kamke three in Brisbane. The year before, Duckworth had one game. Millman took a set, but he did the same against Murray, too. He almost got to Top 50, but long injury breaks stopped him. De Bakker got six games in Miami, Polanski two in Canada at the time when he was a promising name who took sets from the best players. Federer's score against Americans was also interesting because they all have a similar style. Those against Isner don't count, obviously. Federrer's got 4-0 against Sock in sets with no tie-breaks, Querrey had eight games in Wimbledon, Johnson was beaten in three sets in Wimbledon. Fritz is the only exception for winning a set in Stuttgart, but he was almost Top 50.
Rubin is noticeably weaker than any of those listed above. True, he's young, he's still got room for progress, but he definitely can't be compared to Fritz, Harrison, Sock and alike. Even the younger players beat him already. His Top 100 score is 3-10 with only one Top 50 win. He beat Paire here last year, and Paire was surprised. The Spaniard can beat an opponent like this one easily, so that's why we've got two games for the higher margin. Better take it. Details

Tipsarevic looks unstoppable. He focused on challenges at the start of the season, avoided the Australian Open qualifications and now he's on the verge of earning new 80 points, one step away from returning to Top 100. Last week he had a tougher fixture, and he didn't lose a set. He's here on an eight-set winning run in which he didn't lose more than three games. Yesterday against Altmaier he had 6-3, 5-0, so it only could have been more convincing. Li, at 30, still didn't manage to make it to Top 200. He has only 31 challenger wins in his entire career, and the matches with Top 100 players clearly show a limit. Against them his record is 1-11, and the one win he has was six years ago against Gabashvilli who spent most of his time outside of this company. He lost the last 10 such matches without an earned set. I'll write in the brackets how many games he won against his opponents: Anderson (4), Cervantes (5), Soeda (5), Duckworth (7), Soeda (9), Golubev (5), Delbonis (7), Bogomolov (3), Querrey (4) and Verdasco (4). So, in nine out of 10 of those defeats he was under 19.5, but the very good Tipsarevic in shape is a stronger players than most on the list. Besides, Li had a very gentle roster here. Only Garin was from Top 250, and he should have/could have lost to him in two sets. Before that he saved a match-point against Maden in the second set. Details

Jones got the wild card as national u-18 champion. He was good in doubles last year, but didn't win a set in singles. In December he played qualifiers for the Australian Open wild card, these matches are played at best of five, and he won 6 games against Polmans who is outside the Top 200. The only match that can go against the handicap on him is his win over his compatriot who is now in the Top 1000, but not even that since that Australian recorded only one challenger win in his career. Jones gave statements that he is happy to be invited to AO's qualifications, his only goal is to enter the main tournament, he thinks he can achieve that. Arevalo's record against players outside the Top 100 was 10-0 last season, he lost a set only once. In the other 9 wins he has 8 matches where he limited his opponents to five or less games. The only exception is Mendoza with tie break, but he was in the Top 800. Best of all, Arevalo finished last season with 2 back-to-back futures titles. He even switched surfaces in the period of few days, and lost a set only once. He limited 7 opponents to five games and under, Jones is no better than those players. If he had not won that weak U-18 championship he would be in the USA preparing for College season where he is the 4th player in his school with 3-3 record last season. Details