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After the win over Poland, the path toward the round of 16 will be wide open for Brazil if they defeat Japan, so they will be highly motivated. Brazil demolished Poland by 5 at halftime yesterday with great defense (Thiagus, who means a lot to them, is back), and even such wounded Poland is a level better than Japan. Under Nunes they also defeated Slovakia by 7, and they are similar to Japan in quality. There may not be many relevant results on their side, but I am sure they will be maximally motivated today and they will want to decide the game early on so they could possibly relax a bit in the second half. Japan showed a lot of problems against 6-0 zone in the game against France, which is no surprise since they are much shorter than other teams, and they could have a lot of problems today against Brazil's defensive blocked formed by Ponciano and Thiagus. On the other side, Japan's defense is very weak, and they cannot really stop anyone. They were down by 3 at halftime against Russia, but Russia were in the lead by 5 or more the entire half, and Japan closed the gap due to their bad defense. In the second round they were down by 8 against France who played relaxed, and from earlier they were down by 5 against Bahrein, 3 and 7 against Qatar. Three years ago they played a friendly head-to-head, and Brazil were in the lead by 7 then, by 18 at the end.
Everything here is in Brazil's favor, they are motivated, have great defense that can cause a lot of problems for Japan and use counterattacks (like Russia and France have), and Japan's defense is very bad and I cannot see how they could stop anyone, because Brazil can outplay them both 1-on-1 and with outside shots. I expect the game to be decided at halftime and I think Brazil shouldn't have any problems with covering this low margin in the first 30 minutes. Details

I'm writing this in case the info comes out that Tej will play today. He'll play even if there's a slightest chance due to the importance of this match.

This is a 'to be or not to be' match for Tunisia, since they will have a harder time beating Slovenia in the next round, and without two wins they can't pass on. They fell apart against Macedonia in the last 20 minutes, it was expected the same would happen against Spain yesterday, but it didn't. They were defensively great, the limited Spanish offense struggled with their zone and they've shown their greatest weapons. Undoubtedly the defense will be on a high level today too, and since Iceland are at least equally modest in positional offense like Spain, then we shouldn't expect Iceland to be overly efficient, at least not in the first half while Tunisia, as a rule, oscillate. Tunisia had the marginal 27 goals against Macedonia by half-time, but Macedonia were criminal in the defense who a lot of times played 7-on-6. At the Olympics they stayed under this margin in four games, only against Croatia where they didn't stand a chance and they fell apart was it 35, completely unimportant for this bet.
Iceland's defense turned to be their biggest ace which was to be expected, since offensively they don't have a lot of options. They struggled Spain in the first half with their defense, Slovenia the same, and they'll be looking for their chance today. This is the last train (the same as for Tunisia) for the second round, and if they lost today, they will have to try and find a way out against Macedonia. Thus I expect a maximum fight from the first minute, and no more than 25 goals by half-time.
Iceland stopped with Spain at 22, with Slovenia at 19, even in preparations when they played a lot faster they were at 27 against Egypt, while matches against Hungary and Denmark where they ran around a lot and had stronger offenses don't seem relevant (33 and 30 goals). In the Euro qualifications in November they had 26 against Ukraine and 22 against the Czech Republic; last summer in the qualifications for this WC they had 17 and 23 against Portugal, all four games with Palmarsson in the line-up. Details

This is a match which will decide who will pass into the second round of the EC qualifications. It's important to note that Estonia still have a very short rotation. With such a rotation, they're doomed to only one game style, to try and be competitive against the hosts as long as possible. In order to succeed in that, they have to play long attacks, and then be great in the defense. Their offense is currently going through a crisis. They're missing some important links and that can be felt on the result. In earlier stages when they had some players available, they recorded 13 and 14 against Kosovo who, you will agree, are a step lower than Turkey. The hosts are announcing an amazing approach to the game under the new selector. That means they're pumped up and we shouldn't doubt it. They will have a well-filled hall supporting them. And a few days ago when they played their first leg, Turkey had 11-9 at half-time. There's no reason for Estonia not to be able to record three or four more goals today. Everything over today's margin is completely illogical because they would ruin themselves; in same conditions at home they lost the second half with -8. Thus why their under in the first half seems to be a very good opportunity for this match. Details