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I think this will be a tough game, Trieste are now weaker offensively, they are playing without their best player, who scores 15.3 points on average and the best option here is the overall under. The first two play-off games finished at 128 and 143 points. Looking at the round of 16 games, I have a minor problem, because Trieste went up to high numbers in all three games against Treviglio. But Treviglio play much faster, they have the best offense in their division with Virtus Roma and leaders Bella, but they have also conceded the most points than all the teams that qualified for the play-off so I would take that with a grain of salt. Tortona played all five games against Mantova in the round of 16 under today's margin. Looking at Trieste's home results against the top teams in their division, they have 135 against Virtus Bologna, 133 Fortitude, 136 Mantova, 146 Ravenna, 136 Treviso and I think this is a goo dthing, since Trieste's best player is out, and it is obvious from their numbers that they are good defensively and they will focus on defense today. Details

The situation at the league table affected the odds and margins greatly, and they are not realistic, in my opinion. In normal circumstances the margin would be higher by 3-4 goals, which corresponds to the realistic power balance. The important thing here is that Ademar set a goal to break the club record in the number of points won in one season and they will want to win both remaining games, and the home game and support from the fans will be additional motivation today.
Ademar lost only to Granollers, Kolding and Barcelona at home this season, none of which are relevant for this game. Against teams outside the Top 5 their results are: Bidasoa 28-26 in September, Genil 32-25, Huesca (28-24 (had 27-15 lead), Guadalajara 28-22. Encantada 32-20, Valladolid 30-24, Aranda 33-26, Adelma 28-22, Sagunto 28-25, Benidorm 33-22. A lot of the mentioned teams are much stronger than Morazo.
Morrazo have not been competitive away against the stronger teams. Logrono 25-34, Anaitasuna 22-33, Granollers 21-31, Barcelona 17-37. Their first head-to-head at Morrazo finished 34-23 in Ademar's favor, 19-11 at halftime. Morrazo cannot compete with them here, especially with their soft playing style against one of the best defense in the league. They can only hope that Ademar will play fair in the last game against their direct rivals Aranda, which the team from Leon announced as their goal, and then it would be enough for Morrazo to win at home against Bidas in the final round.
*-3.5 is for 5/10, over that a safe bet. Details

U-20 world cup is starting in South Korea. Group B consists of these two teams and Germany and Venezuela. The top 2 teams advance directly, as well as 4 best third-placed teams. FIFA took one spot from Europe and gave it to Oceania which is why he have Vanuatu here and not Netherlands. Vanuatu earned the 2nd position in Oceania through the final against New Zealand,at a tournament they hosted. Even though New Zealand have not sent their top team there, they easily defeated them 5-0.
Mexico secured their spot in the final tournament through the CONCACAF Championship early this year in Costa Rica. They only lost to the Americans (0-1) there, who later won the tournament. Mexico have shown their strength in the deciding game against Salvador which they won 6-1. Before that they defeated Canada 5-0. Their striker Cisneros was tournament's top scorer with 6 goals. Mexico adjusted to the conditions in Korea by preparing in China where they faced New Zealand (this time stronger for 5 players who already played for the senior team) and they won 2-0.
It is obvious that Mexico shouldn't have any problems here because the quality difference is huge. Vanuatu will probably be a target for increasing the goal difference in the games against Venezuela and Germany. Four best third-placed teams will advance and the criteria are: points won in all group games and goal difference in all group games. Details